[opendtv] Re: Bob, where are the tunerless monitors?

  • From: "johnwillkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 17 Jul 2007 23:45:00 -0700

Craig;

You are becoming bert-like in this.

I said at least 40%.  Then I said about half.  Now, are you trying to argue
that at least 40% is mutually exclusive with "about half" or 40%?

And, you're missing the forest for the trees.

5 or 6 channels get 40% of the prime-time viewing.  That's "about" (I have
to flag these terms, just in case) 7% of the viewing per channel.  The other
60% of the time, people view one of about 50 channels.  That's 1.2% of the
viewing per channel. ON AVERAGE.

Which is more valuable to cable viewers?  The channels that cable companies
pay plenty of money for -- with little viewing -- or the channels that cable
companies pay nothing or virtually nothing for -- with ON AVERAGE 6x the
viewing?

I read articles everyday about the upfront market.  I think CBS has rather
good results in that area, it's just taking longer and longer every year.

So, by using YOUR figures, cable gets 1/10 the ad revenues of broadcast.
Which form of distribution is more valuable to advertisers?  I should also
point out that cable has MORE AVAILABILITIES PER HOUR, and MORE CHANNELS
than broadcast.

But, you slice the figures your way.  Lemme see.  That syndicated
programming.  What percentage airs on cable (0%).  Look up the definition of
syndicated programming.  You need to add it to broadcast revenues, since
this is the national "barter time" portion of syndicated spots.  Funny how
you just let it lay there ...

I guess it's possible that cable does barter deals for programming (where a
portion of the avails go to the program distributor), but I've yet to hear
of it.  I do hear a lot about the cash deals that they do for programming.

(I think, by watching, that "The Sopranos" on A&E involves some barter in
the form of HBO spots.)

The networks have not only more eyeballs, and higher cpms, they are able to
capitalize on it.  Cable spots just aren't as easy to acquire, the "service"
is variable and sloppy.  Placing ads on all 5 tv networks in prime time,
over a week, you get great GRP (gross rating points).  Doing the same on
cable requires you to place ads on many more networks, and you still miss a
good portion of the audience, mostly mature or lower demographics.  Many
things I see advertised on network TV news (Polident, Milk of Magnesia) are
only advertised on network TV.

Ever see a Wal-Mart ad on cable?  I haven't: they are choosy, cheap, have a
lower demographic and want the most bang for their buck.  They choose local
spot and network TV.  (I've seen them doing participations or billboards on
ABC World News.)

Cable underperforms their market share -- that is, their revenues as a
percentage are less than their share of eyeballs.  TV Networks and stations
over perform their market share.  Boo-hoo.

I would recommend sleeping in bed and watching TV when not in bed.  I watch
plenty of TV during the regular season, but virtually none of the time that
I am watching tv am I asleep. (Radio is another matter.)

John Willkie

-----Mensaje original-----
De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
nombre de Craig Birkmaier
Enviado el: Tuesday, July 17, 2007 9:13 PM
Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Bob, where are the tunerless monitors?

At 12:36 PM -0700 7/17/07, johnwillkie wrote:
>What I am saying is that households on cable get perhaps 60 channels.  They
>spend around half their time watching 5-6 local TV stations, and about half
>their time grazing amoung the other 50 or more choices.


And I am saying that this is wrong.

For several years now the average is about 40% of cable homes 
watching the broadcast networks DURING PRIME TIME, and this drops 
dramatically at the end of the television season. Take a look at the 
actual sahe numbers here:

http://www.onetvworld.org/main/cab/research/0607WeeklyAudienceMeasures/index
.shtml

During the May sweeps period total cable viewing was 11 share points 
higher than the combined audience for the broadacast networks 
(off-air and all multichannel) during prime time. The leade increased 
to a 22 point share spread when ALL day parts are averaged.

Now look at the most recent week reported at this site:

Week 40 of the 2006/07 Season (6/18- 6/24/07)
 
http://www.onetvworld.org/main/cab/research/0607WeeklyAudienceMeasures/week-
40-of-the-200607-sea.shtml

"In its fortieth week of the new season, Ad-Supported Cable captured 
62.3% of total TV viewing - outpacing the Broadcast Seven by 33.8 
share points."

The lead was almost 20 share point during prime time.

Also not that the charts have a comparison with the same week in the 
2006/2006 season. In every case the networks are down and cable is up.

>
>Here's another way to slice it.  Last time I checked, TV stations and
>networks sold around $90 billion in TV time in a year.  Cable sold, that
>same year, $4 billion.  If there was parity between cable and broadcast,
you
>would expect those numbers to be around $47 billion tv stations/networks
and
>$47 billion cable.  We're well shy of that.

Please provide a source for these numbers.

I think you will find that the total revenues for ALL broadcast 
(networks and stations) is closer to $40 billion.

And take a look at these ad revenue stats for the first quarter of 2007:

http://www.onetvworld.org/main/cab/research/AdvertisingExpenditures/1q-3907-
tv-market-share-f.shtml

Cable topped $4 billion out of a total of about $11.4 billion, which 
includes all syndicated programming as well. And note the percentage 
change column...

And if you have some spare time, read some of the trade press reports 
about the recent network up-fronts. Many are questioning the sanity 
of spot buyers who keep paying more and more for fewer and fewer 
eyeballs.

I will concede that the networks are able to charge a larger premium 
in terms of cost per thousand viewers.

>
>I won't address your home viewing situation, nor mine.  (I've seen about 10
>hours of TV in the last three months.)  Those are anecdotes, and not
>necessarily indicative of the big picture.

I may watch a few hours more than you do, but a good percentage of 
the time i spend in front of the TV, I am asleep.

Regards
Craig

 
 
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