[opendtv] Re: BBC Demonstrates HDTV Broadcasts over SD Channels

At 10:36 AM -0400 6/27/05, John Golitsis wrote:
>Wanna guess again?
>
>http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8AVTQ501.htm
>

I don't see the connection. This is just another press release 
announcing another alignment in the coming format war. And there is 
good reason for such an announcement at this time, as Microsoft has a 
huge bet riding on all of this.

There are several key issues at play in this battle.

1. The physical media

2. A new DRM solution

3. The back end standard for enhanced navigation and web services

Sony seems in no mood to bargain on the physical media. This is to be 
expected as they have committed to Blu-Ray for the next generation 
Play Station.

As Jeroen correctly noted, the DRM solution is a major sticking 
point. Based on insights from friends who are close to the 
negotiations, it sounds like there is no consensus on a DRM solution. 
And as Jeroen noted this is going to be a huge issue for the studios. 
Obviously Microsoft has a major stake in this issue as well.

DRM solutions can be added to any physical media format. So red laser 
is no more out of the game on this issue than the competing HD-DVD 
formats. Apple's iTunes is a good example of how a DRM technology can 
be bolted onto existing distribution media; it works for Internet 
downloads, across networks, on the iPod and on the CD Audio discs you 
can burn using iTunes.

It would not surprise me if it is Apple that launches a new video 
service to parallel iTunes, that works across multiple media, 
including red laser DVDs.

The Microsoft/Toshiba announcement most likely is related to the 
third issue. There is an intense battle going on relative to the 
standards for enhanced interactivity and linking of HD-DVD to 
Internet services. This battle also has strong ties to the DRM 
solutions that are on the table. Sony, Philips, Apple and others are 
promoting a Java-based solution, while Microsoft is pushing their 
dot.net services. I have heard a number of people express concerns 
that if Microsoft wins the third battle they will have their hooks 
into everyone, in essence having control over the evolution of the 
HD-DVD standard.

What all of this says is that there is little ground for compromise 
here. There does not appear to be a solution that is acceptable to 
either side, thus it is likely that the wrangling will continue, or 
that the battle will be taken to the consumers. I believe Jeroen is 
correct; that nothing is going to happen for quite some time.

The studios have no incentive to push one format over the other. They 
are making big bucks off of red laser DVD now, and do not want to do 
anything to slow the momentum there.

The CE and computer industry players are unwilling to compromise on a 
solution that will give a few companies control over the evolution of 
DVD. And then there is the reality that DVD may not even be the 
medium of choice for distribution of video in the future; it's just a 
bit bucket (both red an blu), that may be better suited as a consumer 
archiving format for the files that they download to hard disks.

Bottom line, the troops are aligning on the battlefield, but neither 
side has the confidence to fire the first shot.

This is the kind of environment where a third approach can get a 
foothold, in much the same manner that Apple was able to break 
through the bickering and deliver a viable solution for music, while 
the industry bickered over standards.

Regards
Craig
 
 
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