[opendtv] Another point of view on walled gardens
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2010 07:09:34 -0500
Here's another point of view that shares ome of Kon's concerns...
http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/03/technology/Web_splintering/index.htm?section=money_technology&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_technology+%28Technology%29
End of the Web as we know it, thanks to iPad and others
By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
February 3, 2010: 1:34 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- For many years, the Internet was
relatively simple: Everyone surfed the same Web.
Fast forward to 2010 and the idea of a one-size-fits-all Web is a
quaint memory, thanks to the rise of the iPhone, Kindle, BlackBerry,
Droid and of course, the much-hyped iPad.
As mobile Internet gadgets multiply, so does device-specific content.
For example, popular mobile Twitter app Tweetie is available only on
the iPhone, while an official GMail application is only on the Droid.
And if you buy an e-book for the Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) Kindle,
you can't necessarily view it on other e-readers.
At the same time, more and more online content is password-protected,
like most Facebook profiles and some newspaper articles.
It's a tangled Web they're weaving. Simply put, the Internet we once
knew is shattering into pieces. It's the end of a golden age,
according to Forrester Research analyst Josh Bernoff, who recently
coined the term "splinternet" to describe this phenomenon.
"It reminds me of the early Internet provider battles with AOL and
CompuServe," said Don More, a partner at Updata, an advisory
investment bank for information technology mergers. "There are going
to be winners and losers."
In those early days of the Web, users viewed content using those
specific systems; that is, AOL users saw only AOL content. Then the
World Wide Web became an open platform. Now, mobile devices are
splitting up the Web again.
"You can't put Humpty Dumpty back together again," Bernoff said. "The
stability that helped shape the Web is gone, and it's not coming
back."
Blind spots
When mobile users choose to buy an iPhone, Motorola (MOT, Fortune
500) Droid, BlackBerry or some other device, they are effectively
opting into and out of certain content, since not every application
is available on every gadget.
This is putting content into "gated communities," said Updata's Don
More. The manufacturers of these devices can -- and do -- pick and
choose which apps their devices will work with, rejecting those that
may compete with their own products or that they don't consider up to
snuff.
For example, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) rejected a Google Voice app
for the iPhone, which would have let users send free text messages
and make international calls at a low cost.
And limitations extend further than just the apps. Case in point: The
new iPad does not run Adobe's (ADBE) Flash, which will prevent users
from viewing a lot of Web sites.
"While [this trend] is not necessarily bad for consumers, they should
realize that they are now making a choice," said Forrester's Bernoff.
"Whatever they choose, some content will not be available to them."
Tough choices
The companies that make the apps are now faced with difficult
decisions. Which devices will they choose to support? How much money
and time will it take to get their content to run on these gadgets?
Whatever developers decide, they'll miss some portion of the consumer
population that they were once able to reach on the Web as a whole.
"When we started this business, we never dreamed of what we'd have to
deal with," said Sam Yagan, co-founder of dating site OKCupid.com.
"To rewrite a program for a different phone is time-consuming,
expensive and mind-numbing."
OkCupid employs 14 people, and its iPhone app took six months of
man-hours to develop, Yagan said. The company is considering creating
an app for Android, which would take about two months.
"It's a huge resource allocation problem, especially for smaller
companies," Yagan said. "We just don't have the resources to throw
five people on every device that comes out."
Chris Fagan, co-founder of comparison shopping app maker Froogloid,
said his company chose to focus on Android because it works with
several phones including the Droid, Eris and G1.
"Consumers are losing some of that choice, and businesses are being
hurt by the extra cost," Fagan said. But the burgeoning popularity of
apps means that companies will continue building them despite the
cost, he said.
What's next?
As a more splintered Internet becomes the norm, Bernoff of Forrester
thinks there will be a backlash: a push to make content on mobile
devices more uniform.
The answer might be the newest Web platform coming down the pike,
HTML 5, which Bernoff said could become a standard for mobile devices
in the next few years. For example, HTML 5 can showcase Web site
animation without using Flash.
But the arrival of any new technology also sets off a fight to
control it. Don More of Updata said he expects to see "a massive
battle among companies -- not just Apple and Google, but also Comcast
(CCS), Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and anyone else who touches content.
There's the apps, the ads, the devices ... everyone is trying to
control this emerging technology."
Of course, no one can predict the future of the Web. But Bernoff
knows one thing for sure.
"We don't know what the hot new device will be in 2011," he said.
"But this is certain: It's not going to run the Internet the same way
we once knew."
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