[opendtv] Re: Analyst predicts stalemate in next-gen DVD war

It was a well calculated choice on Toshiba's part to get a player to
market fast with the ability of full software updating so it won't be
obsolete after the inevitable first generation improvements and bugs are
worked out.

When you are considering production volumes in the 100K range, the NRE
engineering expenses can add hundreds of bucks per box, so that's an
important factor in the overall cost equation ... as well as time to
market.

The second wave of manufacturers is building on dedicated media chipsets
with low cost CPU cores, etc. that can be profitable at the established
price point.  The software engineering from the first generation ports
fairly well to the second and brings along valuable field debugging and
optimization.

A Toshiba player owner just picks an option in their setup menu which
checks online for updates, and installs them if newer versions are
available (after checking a couple times with the user).  Not unlike
many PC operating system and application software providers.

BTW, I recall a tear down story on the PlayStation 3 a few months back
that came up with a cost in the $900 - $1,000 range; for point of
reference.  Not sure if that was supposed to be the $500 model or $600
model.  Success could put you out of business at those prices.

Kilroy Hughes

-----Original Message-----
From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Ron Economos
Sent: Monday, June 26, 2006 09:43
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [opendtv] Re: Analyst predicts stalemate in next-gen DVD war

My sources tell me the BOM for the Toshiba player
really is north of $700. Although I admire Toshiba for
having the huevos to be so aggressive, I'm afraid
it may be a bad move since it sets the barrier of
entry very high for other CE manufacturers.

If you want to join the HD-DVD hardware camp, your
first player must be $500 or less. At the same time,
you're a regular company and don't have an axe to
grind like Toshiba, so you'd like to make at least a
little profit on it. That means the BOM must be
considerably south of $500. A tall order IMHO.

However, there's plenty of time for both camps
to make all kinds of changes. Neither format
is going to see any volume until 2008, so
there's many more skirmishes to observe
along the way.

Ron

Tom Barry wrote:

>It may well end in a stalemate but the first round is going pretty=20
>conclusively to HD-DVD.  If you check AVS Forum you will find the
BluRay=20
>fans are canceling their pre-orders and returning their Samsung players

>in droves. <http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=3D690621>
>
>It turns out that only single layer BD discs are currently available,=20
>leaving only 25 MB on a platter.  But the first gen discs are using
only=20
>MPEG-2 and that just doesn't seem to be enough space, at least given
the=20
>Sony encoder being used.
>
>The net result is that at the current time BD costs about twice as much

>as HD-DVD and the movies on average do not look anywhere near as good.
>
>Who knows, maybe BD will ship dual layer with AVC encoding real soon=20
>now.  But otherwise I think they are in real trouble.
>
>- Tom
> =20
>

=20
=20
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