[opendtv] Re: Analysis: TV Marketers Pull Back Upfront Buys: What Happens Next?

At 10:06 AM -0800 2/10/09, John Willkie wrote:

Here's the yarn
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/business/media/08digi.html?_r=1&scp=4&sq=s
creens&st=cse
Thanks for the link. An interesting article, if not a bit self serving for the TV industry. I do not doubt for a moment that TVs are turned on for the number of hours that Nielsen measures. But I have a very difficult time with the premise that all of these hours are being consumed, and even more important that the ads are being viewed.
I do not agree that Television viewership is stronger than ever - not even close. But the TV screens do have an interesting way of being used for background noise. Last night I went to the house of one of our beer club members - she is hosting our monthly meeting tonight. The BIG screen was on in the family room - with the sound turned down. And she had a small 15" screen on her kitchen counter tuned to CNN, also with the sound down. Both were on for hours while we were retrieving a kegerator and beer for the meeting, then doing quality control.
We OFTEN have a TV on while working on our computers, although in the last year we have been watching far more video on the computers.
The article is on the right track with respect to the decline of newspapers. People do not read- from paper - as much anymore, as electronic displays have become the preferred venue for many text based tasks. A MAJOR reason for this is that news is out of date by the time it can be printed on paper and distributed. Add to this the cost of printing and distribution and the flight from display and classified ads in newspapers and it is clear that the newspaper is gong the way of the buggy whip. But TV news is not far behind.
In a world where news is reported virtually instantly, and citizen journalists are often the best source of news and video - especially for accidents like the plane crash Thursday night, why would people waste their time with a newspaper. When I want news I know exactly where to go to get it on demand. 


CPMs in tv and cable are down, Craig, because the auto category (local
individual dealers, local dealer group, and national) disappeared in the
fourth quarter.
No John. CPMs are down because advertisers no longer are willing to pay more for less. You cannot keep asking for more money for fewer ad impressions, especially when there is excess inventory. Yes, the decline in auto advertising has contributed to an increase in available inventory, but ads are down across every market sector. And the bulk of TV auto advertising is local, not national, consuming a great deal of NON prime time inventory.
And then advertisers must factor in the number of people they are "reaching" that are NOT paying attention. Not just the background noise crowd, but the millions of viewers with DVRs who now routinely record all of their favorite shows so that they can skip the ads. This is a significant factor in declining CPMs as well. 



It's not exactly kosher to equate long-term societal trends with short-term
ones driven by topical market forces.
The article you cited was about long term social trends, not the current economic downturn. 



When was the last time you saw a PM newspaper?  They competed with afternoon
traffic.  We had one in San Diego (which I delivered as a kid) until 1992.


Newspapers are dying. This is not NEWS.


And, as the article points out, the size of the audience for tv hasn't
declined; it's just spread among more players, and sometimes people are
working on one screen while nominally watching another. However, I don't
think Nielsen counts that case as watching TV ...
Neilsen has moved to electronic people meters in many markets. These meters only measure if the TV is on, not whether anyone is watching. Advertisers understand that TV is still a very viable medium for some things, especially building awareness for NEW products, but they are also learning that the old axiom that generic brand advertising is necessary to stimulate sales is no longer true - there are better ways to spend ad dollars. 

Regards
Craig



John Willkie



-----Mensaje original-----
De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
nombre de Craig Birkmaier
Enviado el: Tuesday, February 10, 2009 6:38 AM
Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Analysis: TV Marketers Pull Back Upfront Buys: What
Happens Next?

At 11:51 AM -0800 2/9/09, John Willkie wrote:

Funny that you didn't provide the NY times article from yesterday that
mentioned how tv (including cable) is faring better these days than radio
and print, because people are attracted to screens and not reading.

Did you miss that one?  Or, did it not match your preconceived notions?



Yes I missed it. And I can't find it on their site today.

Feel free to post articles/links if you think they are relevant to
our ramblings.


Print has been in decline for decades. The Internet is the straw that
broke the back of the newspaper industry. Radio is similarly
challenged by a variety of new technologies that help people escape
the ads.

TV is not faring much better, but they have done a good job
convincing people that having a TV on in the background -as is the
case as I type this message - is time spent watching TV.

The point is that CPMs for TV are now declining after five decades of
growth, even as the size of the audience has declined.

Regards
Craig


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