[opendtv] AT&T backs Verizon, TMo hesitates on LTE

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2010 14:41:08 -0500

I heard a very reasonable analysis of the original Verizon/Google proposal on 
NPR yesterday. "Reasonable" because I agreed with it. Which is, they are 
proposing that wireless should be exempt from "net neutrality," yes, and that 
even wired should be exempt to some extent. These guys want to give some of 
their traffic priority, e.g. TV programs or VOD programs, even over their wired 
systems.

AT&T's attempt to have the FCC yank even more spectrum away from other uses 
sounds a bit, to me, like an industry that doesn't want to invest in the 
microcellular infrastructure they're going to need. Ultimately, the gains from 
smaller cell sizes are going to do more than a few more MHz of spectrum, I'm 
afraid (for them). Possibly too, the rapid growth in wireless capacity demand 
will level off, as those who want smartphones have switched over from the old 
style phones. These growth curves are almost always S curves.

Bert

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http://www.rethink-wireless.com/2010/08/17/att-backs-verizon-tmo-hesitates-lte.htm?pg=1

AT&T backs Verizon, TMo hesitates on LTE
No 4G services from the fourth cellco for at least two years
By CAROLINE GABRIEL

Published: 17 August, 2010

The US' major GSM operators tussled for the week's 'stating the obvious' prize, 
with AT&T supporting Verizon's view that net neutrality must exempt wireless, 
and T-Mobile conceding that it will not offer LTE services at least for a 
couple of years.

As expected, AT&T has supported the view laid out in Google's and Verizon's 
controversial blueprint for net neutrality, which is seen as stealing the 
initiative from the regulators. The two leading US telcos agree that wireless 
must be exempted from a no-discrimination policy because of the limits of 
spectral capacity.

However, AT&T did not go so far as to endorse the whole framework proposal or 
throw its official weight behind the unlikely Google-Verizon partnership. AT&T 
has taken a broader position opposing net neutrality than its rival.

Referring to the coming explosion in data traffic, Joan Marsh, the carrier's VP 
of federal and regulatory affairs, wrote on a corporate blog post: "Pitted 
against this insatiable demand are wireless networks of finite and shared 
resources. Wireless networks simply cannot provide the same amount of capacity 
as wireline networks."

Policy makers should be focusing on freeing up more spectrum for mobile 
broadband and not on net neutrality, she added. Last week, AT&T Mobility's CEO 
Ralph de la Vega said the Verizon-Google proposal was "a positive sign" that 
could hasten industry consensus.

Over at T-Mobile USA, the fourth cellco is the only national carrier with no 
official plans for 4G services. This mirrors its 3G pattern, where it launched 
well behind its larger competitors, because of shortage of spectrum - though it 
put a shiny gloss on the policy by saying it enabled it to wait for the 
technology to be proven and cost efficient (a stance it also took, in a less 
extreme form, in Europe). To some extent, TMo has been justified - its HSPA+ 
network is forging well ahead of AT&T's in speed and efficiency and it has 
invested in the most modern and cost effective infrastructure.

Aspects of these base stations, such as flexibility, could help smooth its 
eventual path to LTE, but the firm says this will not happen for at least a 
couple more years. Like many European carriers, it believes there is plenty of 
life in HSPA+ yet, and will not make a major network change until demand is 
proven. As with 3G, it lacks spectrum for such a move anyway, and may seek to 
do 4G via a wholesale partnership rather than with direct build-out. Clearwire 
and the new LightSquared have both been reported to have held talks with TMo 
and the former's tests of LTE in paired spectrum are thought to be geared to 
offering a better fit for the cellco's FDD networks (Clearwire's existing 
networks are TDD).

However, any commercially available LTE networks from either Clearwire or 
LightSquared would not appear for at least two years. "We'll get a fourth 
generation wireless network either by buying spectrum or refarming existing 
spectrum, or potentially leasing spectrum together with others," said Rene 
Obermann, CEO of TMO parent Deutsche Telekom, at a press conference last week. 
"I don't think we'll trail others in the next two years. With HSPA+ we're in a 
very good position. We still have plenty of capacity, so we are competitive."

In previous statements, Obermann has said he will only invest directly in new 
networks and spectrum where this makes commercial sense for TMo, and will rely 
on partners or RAN sharing where it has a smaller market position than in lead 
markets like Germany. It has already formed a joint venture with Orange in the 
UK.
 
 
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