[opendtv] Re: 20050226 Schubin's Saturday Stuff (Mark's Monday Memo)

At 6:00 PM -0500 2/26/05, Mark Schubin wrote:
>           - There seemed to be general agreement on the NAB's figure of 73
>million TV sets relying on analog broadcast signals (that doesn't count
>VCRs).  Representative Rick Boucher said that the cost of subsidizing them
>would be $7.3 billion, considerably more than the $4 billion hoped for from
>the auction of the freed analog channels.  LG Electronics vp Jong Kim said
>the cost of set-top boxes could drop to $50 by 2008, "assuming
>industry-wide demand for millions of units by then":
><http://www.tvweek.com/news.cms?newsId=7329>

There is no agreement here. This number is wildly inflated. I have 
never seen what I would consider to be a scientific study of the 
number of TV that are still used with an antenna. No a study that 
quantifies the actual hours of usage. There are many homes with at 
least one off air TV, but that TV may only be used on rare occasions. 
And I seriously doubt that many people would buy a DTV receiver for 
an 20 year old set that is sitting in the guest bedroom.

All of this misses the most important point. Broadcasters have yet to 
get behind the DTV service. Mr Barton just bought another $300 TV. 
Perhaps he understand the realities in Congress...there will be no 
hard deadline out of this Congress...just more gerrymandering to 
protect NTSC.

>           - According to the Government Accounting Office, roughly 21
>million U.S. households (about 19%) rely exclusively on over-the-air
>broadcasts, a figure that differs from that in the recent FCC multichannel
>competition report.  They are said to be disproportionately poor,
>non-white, and Hispanic:
><http://www.tvtechnology.com/dailynews/one.php?id=2754>

Yup. The government folks cannot even agree with one another about 
how many homes still rely exclusively on NTSC.  The GAO is also 
missing the mark by a huge percentage, but this is not surprising as 
they are just a political arm of Congress and rarely get anything 
right.


Maybe when these guys wake up to the reality that people are 
rejecting the broadcast business model we can make some progress. 
Broadcasting can thrive - AGAIN - if we deploy an infrastructure that 
provides a reliable, competitive service. Until that happens, nothing 
will change.

Regards
Craig
 
 
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