[opendtv] Re: 20040712 Mark's Monday Memo

As OTA numbers start to reach statistical limits, someone will have to
establish what the DTV equivalent of "full employment" is. (For those
unfamiliar with the definition, in econ. circles, "full employment" is a
number greater than 0%, variously defined as somewhere between 3% and 6%
unemploment, depending on which theorist is talking and when). The
equivalent to what economists call "cyclical unemployment," which the
full-employment figure takes into account, could be roughly equivalent
to MVPD churn, implying that there will always be some minimum number of
non-MVPD households. The other anomalous categories (e.g., theft of
service, etc.) cited by NCTA could also be part of this number.

Of course, Congressionally speaking, the threshold is already
statutorily set at 15% (on an individual market basis), so the exact
statistical value is really moot.=20

Now I hate to bring up the old issue of sets vs. households, but as
these numbers become so low, such an analysis becomes increasingly
important. To wit, it is quite conceivable that the number of OTA
*households* (i.e., no MVPD service at all) may drop well below 15% in a
given market, but the number of *TVs* in those households that receive
only OTA service could remain greater than 15% of the TVs in the market.
This could be particularly true in suburban areas where the number of
TVs per household is relatively high. I can see this issue coming around
again as analog shutoff is seriously considered, and various proponents'
statistics are thrown about.

Practically speaking, MVPDs' common practice of adding incremental costs
to their service fees on a per-set basis (and for DBS, where significant
incremental hardware costs may also be involved) lends some weight to
this argument.

Should be an interesting next few years...

Skip Pizzi=20
Manager, Technical Policy
Windows Client Strategic Relations
Microsoft Corp.


-----Original Message-----
From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Bob Miller
Sent: Monday, July 12, 2004 10:39 PM
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [opendtv] Re: 20040712 Mark's Monday Memo

Sorry,

Trying to be brief.
The list of % refer to the 97 million households that make up the MVPD
universe but there are 108.4 million Nielsen households in total.

(MVPD) universe (97 million households out of Nielsen's 108.4 million TV
households) as of April as follows:
              - 73.3% - Cable
              - 23.5% - DBS satellite
              -  1.1% - Satellite master-antenna TV (SMATV)
              -  0.4% - C-band satellite
              -  0.2% - Multichannel multipoint distribution service
(MMDS)
              -  1.4% - Other:



John Golitsis wrote:

>OK, you've lost me.  What 97?  What 108.4?  What am I not understanding

>here?  Mark's figures added up equal 99.9%, so what's left?  Wouldn't=20
>OTA be in the 1.4% number?
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Bob Miller" <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Monday, July 12, 2004 9:33 PM
>Subject: [opendtv] Re: 20040712 Mark's Monday Memo
>
>
> =20
>
>>One more time. 97/108.4=3D89.48 leaving 10.52%.
>>
>>Bob Miller wrote:
>>
>>   =20
>>
>>>Oops that should be 97/108.4=3D10.52% of households that still rely =
on=20
>>>OTA not 11.4%, sorry.
>>>
>>>And the final should be 2.35% who still rely on OTA as of those April

>>>figures from NCTA.
>>>
>>>John Golitsis wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>     =20
>>>
>>>>Huh?
>>>>
>>>>----- Original Message -----
>>>>From: "Bob Miller" <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
>>>>
>>>>       =20
>>>>
>>>>>Mark Schubin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>         =20
>>>>>
>>>>>>           - 73.3% - Cable
>>>>>>           - 23.5% - DBS satellite
>>>>>>           -  1.1% - Satellite master-antenna TV (SMATV)
>>>>>>           -  0.4% - C-band satellite
>>>>>>           -  0.2% - Multichannel multipoint distribution service
>>>>>>           -  1.4% - Other:
>>>>>><http://www.ncta.com/pdf_files/Overview.pdf>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>           =20
>>>>>>
>>>>>Which leave 11.4% who rely on OTA TV/DTV.
>>>>>
>>>>>         =20
>>>>>
>
>=20
>=20
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> =20
>

=20
=20
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