[opendtv] Re: 060707 Free Friday Fragments (Mark's Monday Memo)

  • From: Richard Hollandsworth <holl_ands@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2006 12:43:43 -0700 (PDT)

Our TWC-San Diego system is "at capacity", meaning that cable speed increases 
to 6 Mbps, recent VoIP deployments, PPV/OnDemand expansions and Digital 
Simulcast (6 more QAM carriers) have left room for "only" 9 full-time National 
HD channels (plus locals, HD PPV and some part-timers).
There continues to be a slow movement from analog "Expanded' tier to digital 
and we all could readily pick a handful (Analog HBO, Golf, OLN, Court, etc.) 
that could be repopulated with National HD channels (typically 3 HD per QAM) to 
double the HD capacity.....but it hasn't happened....yet.....even though there 
are a total of about 30 National HD channels available to Headends via C/K-Band 
Sat.

If we leave intact the 22 "Basic" Analog channes and "simply"  eliminate all 53 
"Expanded" Analog channels (already converted in Digital Simulcast), then as 
many as 159 HD Channels could be added (although some might opt to use higher 
quality 2 HD/QAM packing).

The two Keys to the Kingdom seem to be 1) Switched Digital Video (SDV) to more 
efficiently use QAM channels and 2) "Cheap" All-Digital STB and HD-DVR that can 
be used to wean the MAJORITY of cable viewers from Expanded Analog to Digital.  
Even though that means the complication of adding an STB for most viewers 
(which may become less of a drawback in Feb2007).

Personally, I blame "the Lawyers" for our current shortage of HD channels on 
cable (other than FiOS).  Even TWC-Columbia with their SDV only has 10 
full-time National HD channels--plus West Coast versions of HBO/SHO....and 
still no ESPN2-HD, MHD (same as us).

However, neither of the above options is an attractive near-term option....

SDV is active on TWC-Columbia for selected channels, but is incompatibile with 
one-way CableCARD-I for Premium, Hispanic, PPV, et.al.  Personally I don't 
think this is a show stopper--but others may object to using an STB instead...  
If this were the only problem, SDV should be much more widespread by now....

Other than limited trials (later this year for a few more TWC and other MSO 
locations), SDV deployment seems to be linked to the not yet finalized OCAP 
v.1.1 revision:
http://www.cabledatacomnews.com/weekly_analysis/07062006_02.html
If this is the timeline for wide-spread SDV deployment, it's at LEAST a year 
away.

Further complications are the understandable reluctance by HDTV, STB and DVR 
manufacturers to roll-out two-way CC-II (M-Card) and OCAP compatible products 
with OCAP v.1.1 not yet finalized and CC-II expected to have an extremely short 
life as it is replaced with software-only DCAS (Downloadable Conditional Access 
System).  The reported steep drop in CC Ready HDTVs should be no surprise....

And not to forget COMCAST's waiver request to FCC to forgetabout July2007 
requirement for separable security module (M-Card/CC-II) and simply roll out 
really "cheap" digital STBs.

Which begs the question of how "cheap" a digital STB would be if it had to 
embed a two-way M-Card capability--esp. vs DCAS the following year...
COMCAST's cost for the "cheap" Samsung RNG-100 reportedly jumped from (an 
unbelievable) $35 to $100:
http://www.cedmagazine.com/article/CA6324093.html

DeJaVu re "cheap" OTA STB dead horse enough....

holl_ands

==============================================
"Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote: Steve Wilson wrote:

> Please forgive my ignorance, but I dont get it. I heard the
> cable systems were already at capacity with MPEG2 and that's
> driving some interest in H.264.

Yes, but they are wasting a lot of bandwidth with analog channels still.
That's why I qualified by saying "fully converted" to 256-QAM. And also,
VOD offered by the cable company, as opposed to VOD provided by an
in-home PVR, either consumes very large amounts of core system
bandwidth, or creates the need for smart boxes at the edge of the cable
system's network, outside customer premises.

The math is simple. Existing cable systems can carry at least 120 6-MHz
channels, which, with 256-QAM, translates to 240 60p HDTV at least. And
more with AVC, and more still with SD streams and 24p HD streams.

Cable system HFC plants just don't need to fat-pipe-to-thin-pipe feature
IPTV was designed to provide. The telcos do need this.

> Even so, isn't IPTV going to enable new services as compared
> to what you can get over cable/MPEG TS?  Cable co's are
> going to have to invent something new to compete or start
> running IPTV as well.  Assuming of course, IPTV becomes a
> large enough threat.

IPTV was developed to try to compete with cable systems, when the end
user pipe is very thin. But as is, cable systems can increase their
offerings dramatically, just by converting to all-digital. And they can
also offer improved broadband access, without having to whole-hog
convert their entire PON plants into switched 10G Ethernet routed
networks. So I don't see this IPTV threat, except in the sales
brochures. IPTV is trying to do catch-up, as I see it.

Then there are those who jump up and say, "Who needs 2000 simultaneous
streams in the home?"

No one needs to watch 2000 simultaneous channels in the home. That's not
the issue, though. The issue is that if you had 2000 simultaneous
channels, CE vendors could sell smartly designed boxes to select and
record programs, and display the menu of recorded programs, without
involving the cable system in any way. So, you've greatly improved the
experience for subscribers, and reduced the need for any in-system VOD.
(And, of course, the cable company is still providing that broadband
access, let's not forget, which can be used for those niche channels.)

My conclusion is that IPTV for cable companies is primarily aimed at
giving back to the service provider more contol, taking it from the
subscriber. By creating narrow pipes to customer premises.

Bert
 
 
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