[oajfp] new article on sexual-recidivism risk assessment
- From: "Gregory DeClue Ph. D. ABPP" <gregdeclue@xxxxxx>
- To: OAJFP@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 29 May 2010 18:54:53 -0400
Campbell, T. & DeClue, G. Flying blind with naked factors: Problems and
pitfalls in adjusted-actuarial sex-offender risk assessment. Open Access
Journal of Forensic Psychology, 2, 75-101.
Abstract:
Actuarial instruments are typically the centerpieces of evaluations pursuant to
civil-commitment statutes for sex offenders. Almost as frequently as they rely
on actuarial instruments, evaluators adjust actuarial data via weighing
additional variables that are (presumably) correlated with recidivism.
Typically, however, such variables are only weakly related to reoffending. This
article reviews many problems and pitfalls undermining Adjusted Actuarial
Assessment (AAA) and reports data demonstrating how ill-advised this procedure
is. Publicly available data do not support a claim in a recent meta-analysis
(Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2009, p. 7), “For all three measures, for all types
of raters, and for all outcomes, the adjusted scores showed lower predictive
accuracy than did the unadjusted actuarial scores.” Based on available data,
at its best, AAA neither increases nor decreases the accuracy of actuarial
classification. At its worst, AAA dilutes actuarial accuracy.
Click "Volume 2: 2010" at http://www.forensicpsychologyunbound.ws/ for free
access to the full article.
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