[nhrxfire] FW: Rx Burn Planning/Weather Model links and info/Eastern Area Rx Burn Window Request Link
- From: "Nowell, Bryan" <Bryan.Nowell@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "nhrxfire@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <nhrxfire@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2017 13:04:05 +0000
FYI
________________________________
From: Marien, Stephen P -FS <smarien02@xxxxxxxxx<mailto:smarien02@xxxxxxxxx>>
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Delgado, Edward
Subject: Rx Burn Planning/Weather Model links and info/Eastern Area Rx Burn
Window Request Link
Eastern Area Fire Community,
For those of you planning spring Rx burns below are some links and guidance for
planning purposes and guidance.
You may submit an EA Prescribed Burn Window Request which sends me your burn
unit location and prescription to my NPS email account. I then look over these
models and assess if and when you may have a window. Please remember that the
NWS provide the official Spot Forecasts for the day of the burn. My feedback
is for planning purposes only.
https://gacc.nifc.gov/eacc/predictive_services/weather/EA_Prescribed_Burn_Window_Form.html
*********************************************************************************
The GFS is the main U.S. medium range weather model folks look at.
The shaded green and blue colored areas are forecast 12 hour water equivalent
precip amounts. The legend for the colors is on the left. The valid date/time
are listed at the top of each image. 12UTC = 800 AM EDT and 00 UTC = 800 PM
EDT of the previous date listed. The link below is the 12Z or UTC GFS morning
run. You can look at this run each day after lunch (around Noon CDT or 100 PM
EDT) and see what the overall precip trends are across your area.
http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_12z_thck_all.htm
For example, if you happen to click on this on March 14th, 12Z morning model
run shows light precip moving through the Great Lakes and Big Rivers on Monday,
March 20, shown in light green. And increasing temps (dashed red lines, colder
air are blue lines) Black isobars become a bit more packed together on Monday
and winds are from the south ahead of the trough of low pressure moving through
the Great Lakes and Big Rivers. Moderate speeds over the eastern Great Lakes
down into the SE half of the Big Rivers.
This is only one of the medium range models available. The European ECMWF has
actually done better overall across the US for the last few years but I can't
find a good loop showing all the parameters I like to look at of it.
Here is link to all of the models. The WRF/NAM is a shorter term U.S model
where you can get another opinion. The listed Z times are when the model
initializes. So the 12Z or 12 UTC are run in the morning our time and are
usually done by lunchtime or early afternoon.
http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm
Keep in mind the further you go out in the future on all of the models the less
reliable they become. They are decent out 7 to 10 days on overall trends.
The ECMWF is listed further down but this page only displays the pressure
patterns for each 12 hour time period.
Shoot me an email with any questions you may have.
Steve
[Forest Service Shield][cid:image005.jpg@01D0BE32.C5251B50]
Stephen Marien
Fire Weather Program Manager, Eastern Area Coordination Center (EACC)
Eastern Region
p: 651-293-8446
c: 402-250-7844
f: 651-290-3815
stephen_marien@xxxxxxx<mailto:stephen_marien@xxxxxxx>
Mississippi River and Recreation Area
111 East Kellogg Blvd., Suite 105
Saint Paul, MN 55101
http://gacc.nifc.gov/eacc/
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- » [nhrxfire] FW: Rx Burn Planning/Weather Model links and info/Eastern Area Rx Burn Window Request Link - Nowell, Bryan
