[net-gold] MEDICAL: DISEASES: CANCER : MEDICAL: COSTS: Cancer Costs Projected to Reach at Least $158 Billion in 2020
- From: "David P. Dillard" <jwne@xxxxxxxxxx>
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- Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2011 08:49:11 -0400 (EDT)
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MEDICAL: DISEASES: CANCER :
MEDICAL: COSTS:
Cancer Costs Projected to Reach at Least $158 Billion in 2020
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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2011 16:23:27 -0500
From: "NIH OLIB (NIH/OD)" <olib@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: NIHPRESS@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Cancer Costs Projected to Reach at Least $158 Billion in 2020
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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH NIH News
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National Cancer Institute (NCI)
http://www.nci.nih.gov
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For Immediate Release: Wednesday, January 12, 2011, 4 p.m. EST
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CONTACT:
NCI Office of Media Relations
301-496-6641
e-mail:
ncipressofficers@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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CANCER COSTS PROJECTED TO REACH AT LEAST $158 BILLION IN 2020
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New NIH study projects survivorship and costs of cancer care based on
changes in the US population and cancer trends
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Based on growth and aging of the U.S. population, medical expenditures for
cancer in the year 2020 are projected to reach at least $158 billion (in
2010 dollars) - an increase of 27 percent over 2010, according to a
National Institutes of Health analysis. If newly developed tools for
cancer diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up continue to be more expensive,
medical expenditures for cancer could reach as high as $207 billion, said
the researchers from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), part of the NIH.
The analysis appears online, Jan. 12, 2011, in the Journal of the National
Cancer Institute.
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The projections were based on the most recent data available on cancer
incidence, survival, and costs of care. In 2010, medical costs associated
with cancer were projected to reach $127.6 billion, with the highest costs
associated with breast cancer ($16.5 billion), followed by colorectal
cancer ($14 billion), lymphoma ($12 billion), lung cancer ($12 billion)
and prostate cancer ($12 billion).
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If cancer incidence and survival rates and costs remain stable and the
U.S. population ages at the rate predicted by the U.S. Census Bureau,
direct cancer care expenditures would reach $158 billion in 2020, the
report said.
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However, the researchers also did additional analyses to account for
changes in cancer incidence and survival rates and for the likelihood that
cancer care costs will increase as new technologies and treatments are
developed. Assuming a 2 percent annual increase in medical costs in the
initial and final phases of care - which would mirror recent trends - the
projected 2020 costs increased to $173 billion. Estimating a 5 percent
annual increase in these costs raised the projection to $207 billion.
These figures do not include other types of costs, such as lost
productivity, which add to the overall financial burden of cancer.
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"Rising health care costs pose a challenge for policy makers charged with
allocating future resources on cancer research, treatment, and
prevention," said study author Angela Mariotto, Ph.D., from NCI's
Surveillance Research Program. "Because it is difficult to anticipate
future developments of cancer control technologies and their impact on the
burden of cancer, we evaluated a variety of possible scenarios."
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To project national cancer expenditures, the researchers combined cancer
prevalence, which is the current number of people living with cancer, with
average annual costs of care by age (less than 65 or 65 and older).
According to their prevalence estimates, there were 13.8 million cancer
survivors alive in 2010, 58 percent of whom were age 65 or older. If
cancer incidence and survival rates remain stable, the number of cancer
survivors in 2020 will increase by 31 percent, to about 18.1 million.
Because of the aging of the U.S. population, the researchers expect the
largest increase in cancer survivors over the next 10 years to be among
Americans age 65 and older.
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"The rising costs of cancer care illustrate how important it is for us to
advance the science of cancer prevention and treatment to ensure that
we're using the most effective approaches," said Robert Croyle, Ph.D.,
director, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, NCI. "This
is especially important for elderly cancer patients with other complex
health problems."
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To develop their cost projections, the authors used average medical costs
for the different phases of cancer care: the first year after diagnosis,
the last year of life, and the time in between. For all types of cancer,
per-person costs of care were highest in the final year of life.
Per-person costs associated with the first year after a cancer diagnosis
were more varied, with cancers of the brain, pancreas, ovaries, esophagus
and stomach having the highest initial costs and melanoma, prostate and
breast cancers having the lowest initial-year costs.
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These new projections are higher than previously published estimates of
direct cancer expenditures, largely because the researchers used the most
recent data available - including Medicare claims data through 2006, which
include payments for newer, more expensive, targeted therapies which
attack specific cancer cells and often have fewer side effects than other
types of cancer treatments. In addition, by analyzing costs according to
phase of care, which revealed the higher costs of care associated with the
first year of treatment and last year of life (for those who die from
their disease), the researchers were able to generate more precise
estimates of the cost of care.
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The researchers used 2005 incidence and mortality data from NCI's
Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program to estimate
cancer prevalence for 2010 and 2020. Population estimates for the United
States was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau's National Interim
Projections for 2006 to 2020. Medical cost estimates were obtained using
the SEER-Medicare database which links SEER data to Medicare claims data
from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
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More information about these cost projections is available at:
http://costprojections.cancer.gov
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For more information about NCI's Health Services and Economics Branch,
please visit:
http://healthservices.cancer.gov/
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For more information about NCI's Surveillance Research Program, please
visit:
http://surveillance.cancer.gov/
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NCI leads the National Cancer Program and the NIH effort to dramatically
reduce the burden of cancer and improve the lives of cancer patients and
their families, through research into prevention and cancer biology, the
development of new interventions, and the training and mentoring of new
researchers. For more information about cancer, please visit the NCI Web
site at
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http://www.cancer.gov
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or call NCI's Cancer Information Service at
1-800-4-CANCER
1-800-422-6237
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The National Institutes of Health (NIH) -- The Nation's Medical Research
Agency -- includes 27 Institutes and Centers and is a component of the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. It is the primary federal
agency for conducting and supporting basic, clinical and translational
medical research, and it investigates the causes, treatments, and cures
for both common and rare diseases. For more information about NIH and its
programs, visit
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http://www.nih.gov
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REFERENCE:
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Mariotto AB, Yabroff KR, Shao Y, Feuer EJ, and Brown ML
Projections of the Cost of Cancer Care in the United States: 2010-2020
Jan 19, 2011
JNCI, Vol. 103, No. 2
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##
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This NIH News Release is available online at:
http://www.nih.gov/news/health/jan2011/nci-12.htm
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Sincerely,
David Dillard
Temple University
(215) 204 - 4584
jwne@xxxxxxxxxx
http://daviddillard.businesscard2.com
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