[net-gold] Re: Limits to Growth
- From: "David P. Dillard" <jwne@xxxxxxxxxx>
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- Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2011 17:23:10 -0400 (EDT)
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Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2011 11:43:23 -0700
From: Richard Hake <rrhake@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: Net-Gold@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To: AERA-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: Net-Gold@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [Net-Gold] Re: Limits to Growth
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ABSTRACT: SClistserv's Michael Beverley (2011) in his post "Limits to
Growth" wrote (paraphrasing) "Does anyone recall a discussion
concerning the book 'Limits to Growth' on the listserve?"
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Rick Kubina responded by giving references to Meadows et al. (1972,
2004) and to the UTube video of Albert Bartlett's popular discussion
of "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy" at
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY> - as of 12 August 2011
10:24-0700 observed 2,894,868 times!
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I give 8 references to the work of Donella and Dennis Meadows
[including Meadows et al. (1972, 2004)] that were derived from:
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(a) "Over Two-Hundred Annotated References on Systems Thinking" [Hake
(2009a) at <http://bit.ly/9gZdXU>];
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(b) "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2" [Hake (2009b)
at <http://bit.ly/qeG9bs>]; and
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(c) 10 posts of mine containing the word "Meadows" on the OPEN!
AERA-L archives at <http://bit.ly/cuxhel>.
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I then contrast the rosy outlook on the future of SClistserv's
Michael Lamport Commons (2011) of the Harvard Medical School with the
less sanguine predictions of Dennis Meadows.
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SClistserv's Michael Beverley (2011) in his post "Limits to Growth" wrote:
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"Does anyone recall a discussion concerning this book on the list
serve? If so could you email me off list perhaps with any
information. I seem to recall it being referenced in a journal or PT
reference, but can't recall where I might have saw it."
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Rick Kubina (2011) responded by giving references to Meadows et al.
(1972, 2004) and adding this P.S. [bracketed by lines "KKKKK. . . .
."; my CAPS; my insert at . . . . .[[insert]]. . . . ."]:
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KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK
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" THE GREATEST SHORTCOMING OF THE HUMAN RACE IS OUR INABILITY TO
UNDERSTAND THE EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION." - Albert Bartlett . . . .
.[[<http://www.albartlett.org/>]]. . . .
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I encourage everyone on the list to watch his 8 part lecture on
exponential growth. The implications are frightening, but it explains
so much and the math behind it is well explained.
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Go here to watch. . . . [[Albert Bartlett's popular discussion of
"Arithmetic, Population, and Energy"]]. . . .
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY> . . . . . .[[ as of 12
August 2011 10:24-0700 observed 2,894,868 times! ]]. . . .
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KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK
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I give 8 references (double asterisked ** in the REFERENCE list
below) to the work of Donella and Dennis Meadows [including Meadows
et al. (1972, 2004)] that were derived from:
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(a) "Over Two-Hundred Annotated References on Systems Thinking" [Hake (2009a)];
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(b) "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate #2" [Hake (2009b)]; and
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(c) 10 posts of mine containing the word "Meadows" on the OPEN!
AERA-L archives at <http://bit.ly/cuxhel>, all replete with
"Definitive Academic References" that recognize the invention of the
internet.
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To access the latter:
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1. click on <http://bit.ly/n2czsD> to bring up the OPEN! AERA-L search engine,
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2. type "Hake" (without the quotes) into the Author slot,
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3. type "Meadows"(without the quotes) into the String slot,
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4. click on "Search"
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BTW: In response to "Limits to Growth" [Beverley (2011)],
SClistserv's Michael Lamport Commons (2011) of the Harvard Medical
School wrote [bracketed by lines "CCCCCC. . . . ." slightly edited to
remove typos; reformatted to improve readability; some rewording to
improve coherence - please let me know if I've missed the intended
meaning; my insert at . . . . .[[insert]]. . . . ."]:
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CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC
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This. . . .[[book "Limits to Growth]]. . . . is what happens to
people when they think that the new world will look just like the
present world with just more. . . . .[[Not so, in the new world]]. .
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a. Plastic based photoelectric cells will produce electricity for
just the low cost of the cells, their installation and to some extent
the power transmission.
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b. Vehicles will be powered on H2, made from cheap electricity.
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c. The population will stop growing.
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d. We will recycle everything as many European countries already do.
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e. Plants will generate their own fertilizer.
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f. Water purification will become cheaper and cheaper.
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g. Because of the internet and what will replace it, people will
travel less and live where they like. Some like to walk to
restaurants and enjoy the life of the city. Others will like the
solitude of the countryside.
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h. Information that takes almost no nonrenewable resources is and
will be the fastest growing sector of the economy.
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i. Food, now representing about 10% of our effort in developed
countries and such that we now have too much of it, will be in
surplus.
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j. Most developed countries will be shrinking in population, just as
they now are. The average is currently below replacement.
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CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC
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For Dennis Meadows' less sanguine outlook see the signature quote.
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Richard Hake, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Indiana University
Honorary Member, Curmudgeon Lodge of Deventer, The Netherlands
President, PEdants for Definitive Academic References which Recognize the
Invention of the Internet (PEDARRII)
<rrhake@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~hake>
<http://www.physics.indiana.edu/~sdi>
<http://HakesEdStuff.blogspot.com>
<http://iub.academia.edu/RichardHake>
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"The global society, and particularly the US, is like a small
boatload of people about to enter a long stretch of white water and
rapids. For the foreseeable future we will be totally preoccupied
with immediate problems and far too distracted to develop and
implement a rational long term plan. Eventually, after climate
change, fossil fuel depletion, and several other manifestations of
the growth limits have produced some new sort of semi stable state,
with a MUCH lower population and material standard of living, our
species will hopefully be able to start identifying, choosing, and
pursuing its longer term options. I do not expect to be alive when
that time comes."
Dennis Meadows, private communication of 17 November
2009 to R.R. Hake, quoted by permission.
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REFERENCES [All URL's shortened by <http://bit.ly/> and accessed on
12 August 2011.]
Beverley, M. 2011. "Limits to Growth," SClistserv post of 10 Aug 2011
15:43:47+0100; on the OPEN! SClistserv archives at
<http://bit.ly/oMMDTQ>.
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Kubina, R. 2011. "Re: Limits to Growth," SClistserv post of 10 Aug
2011 14:39:35-0400; on the OPEN! SClistserv archives at
<http://bit.ly/qV3Fms>.
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Dormgrandpop. 2009. "Remembering Dana Meadows on the 8th Anniversary
of Her Death," blog entry of 20 February; online
at<http://bit.ly/qZUwkJ>.
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Hake, R.R. 2009a. "Over Two-Hundred Annotated References on Systems
Thinking," online as as 1.8 MB pdf at <http://bit.ly/9gZdXU> and as
ref. 58 on my webpage <http://bit.ly/a6M5y0>. The abstract and link
to the complete post are also online on my blog "Hake'sEdStuff" at
<http://bit.ly/duhqLE> with a provision for comments.
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Hake, R.R. 2009b. "Misconceptions in the Population/Energy Debate
#2," online on the OPEN! AERA-L archives at <http://bit.ly/qeG9bs>.
Post of 16 Nov 2009 09:49:41 -0800 to AERA-L & Net-Gold. This post
with over 100 academic references, over 150 hot-linked URL's, and
SEVEN SAGE QUOTES, provides a window onto the vast literature of
energy, natural resources, demographics, economics, and system
dynamics; all as applied to societal concerns. The abstract and link
to the complete post were transmitted to various discussion lists.
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**Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, W.W. Behrens. 1972. "The
Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the
Predicament of Mankind." Potomac Associates. Amazon.com information
at <http://amzn.to/pGOlIt>. See also the updated Meadows et al.
1973, 1974, 1992, 2004) and Wikipedia'a (2009) entry "Limits to
Growth."
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**Meadows, D.L., and D.H. Meadows, ed., 1973. "Toward Global
Equilibrium: Collected Papers," Pegasus Communications. Amazon.com
information at <http://amzn.to/qXWbzs>. Note the searchable "Look
Inside" feature.
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**Meadows, D.L., W.W. Behrens, D.H. Meadows, R.F. Naill, J. Randers,
& E.K.O. Zahn. 1974. "Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World." Pegasus.
Publisher's information at <http://bit.ly/oAYWhh >. Amazon.com
information at <http://amzn.to/oFNLFJ>. The publisher states: "This
book details the research that served as the foundation for the Club
of Rome's first report, The Limits of Growth. After describing the
purpose and methodology of the
global modeling effort, THE AUTHORS PRESENT THE WORLD3 MODEL,
EQUATION BY EQUATION. . . . . .[[My CAPS.]]. . . . . With its
thorough explanations, this volume is indispensable for individuals
interested either in extending the study or constructing their own
large-scale simulation models. Includes technical material for
multidisciplinary courses on population, the environment, natural
resources, and economic development."
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**Meadows, Donella. 1988. "My Candidate for the Next President of the
United States," online at <http://bit.ly/o6atpH>. This is from the
"Donella Meadows Archive" <http://bit.ly/pddp74> containing 15 years
worth of essays published as the award winning weekly Global Citizen
column.
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**Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, & J. Randers, 1992. "Beyond the
Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable
Future." Chelsea Green. Amazon.com information at
<http://amzn.to/neHfBF>. See also the precursor Meadows et al. (1972).
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**Meadows, D.H., J. Randers, & D.L. Meadows. 2004. "Limits to Growth:
The 30-Year Update." Chelsea Green; publisher's information at
<http://bit.ly/pSoodQ>, featuring: (a) additional information
(Overview, Praise, Associated Articles, Excerpt (highly recommended),
Reviews, Table Of Contents);(b) a CD that "permits users to reproduce
and examine the details of the ten scenarios published in the
book";(c) Herman Daly's endorsement: "Not everything bears
repetition, but truth does--especially when both denied by entrenched
interests and verified by new information";(d) Lester Brown's
appraisal: Reading the 30th-year update reminds me of why the systems
approach to thinking about our future is not only valuable, but
indispensable. Thirty years ago, it was easy for the critics to
dismiss the limits to growth. But in today's world, with its
collapsing fisheries, shrinking forests, falling water tables, dying
coral reefs, expanding deserts, eroding soils, rising temperatures,
and disappearing species, it is not so easy to do so.
We are all indebted to the "Limits" team for reminding us again that
time is running out." Amazon.com information at
<http://amzn.to/q6ikuT>. Note the searchable "Look Inside" feature.
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**Meadows, Donella. 2008. "Thinking in Systems: A Primer." Edited by
Diana Wright. Chelsea Green; publisher's information at
<http://bit.ly/dXqcni>, featuring:(a) additional information
(Overview; Praise; Associated Articles; For Bloggers, Press, Media;
Reviews; & Upcoming Webinar Excerpt (highly recommended), Reviews,
Table Of Contents), (b) Related News ("Remembering Dana Meadows on
the 8th Anniversary of Her Death" [Dormgrandpop (2009), and "A
Presidential Candidate with the Dignity We Deserve" [Meadows (1988)].
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**Sweeney, L.B. & D. Meadows. 2010 (first printed in 2001). "The
Systems Thinking Playbook: Exercises to Stretch and Build Learning
and Systems Thinking Capabilities." Chelsea Green Publishing;
publisher's information at <http://bit.ly/aoVwNy>, wherein it is
stated: "This book has become a favorite of K-12 teachers, university
faculty, and corporate consultants. It provides short gaming
exercises that illustrate the subtleties of systems thinking. The
companion DVD shows the authors introducing and running each of the
thirty games. The thirty games are classified by these areas of
learning: Systems Thinking, Mental Models, Team Learning, Shared
Vision, and Personal Mastery. Each description clearly explains when,
how, and why the game is useful. There are explicit instructions for
debriefing each exercise as well as a list of all required materials.
A summary matrix has been added for a quick glance at all thirty
games. When you are in a hurry to find just the right initiative for
some part of your course, the matrix will help you find it."
Amazon.com information at <http://amzn.to/bYjjwl>, note the
searchable "Look Inside" feature.
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Wikipedia. 2009. "Limits to Growth"
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth>.
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