[nasional_list] [ppiindia] Bolivian victor sending some mixed signals

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http://informasi-beasiswa.blogspot.com **      Bolivian victor sending some 
mixed signals  
      By Bill Faries The New York Times

      THURSDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2005


     


     
      LA PAZ At a rally here just days before he was elected Bolivia's first 
indigenous president, Evo Morales had his running mate, Álvaro García Linera, 
warm up the crowd. 

      "We are going to end 500 years of colonialism, 180 years of 
discrimination and 20 years of neo-liberal economic policy!" García declared. 

      The thousands gathered in the capital's Plaza Villarroel cheered wildly, 
but analysts feel that translating those slogans into coherent national 
policies may prove difficult. 

      Morales and his Movement Toward Socialism built their victory on promises 
to nationalize the country's natural resources, including its vast gas 
reserves; legalize the planting of coca, a traditional crop and the key 
ingredient in cocaine, and rewrite the country's Constitution. 

      Left largely unsaid was a promise to bring greater stability to this 
poverty-stricken country, which has run through five presidents in five years 
and has a per capita income of $900, the lowest in South America, according to 
the World Bank. 

      With 54 percent of the vote in the Dec. 18 election, Morales attracted 
more support than any candidate in a generation. Hopes are high here that when 
he takes office on Jan. 22, Bolivia will finally begin to close the economic 
gap between itself and its wealthier neighbors of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. 

      Morales has moved quickly to consolidate his victory. He has sought the 
backing of key leftist leaders, like Abel Mamani, who could make his tenure 
ungovernable if their supporters take to the streets, as they have against 
Bolivia's two previous presidents. 

      He followed that up with a trip to the eastern city of Santa Cruz, where 
a simmering autonomy movement has been fueled, in part, by opposition to 
Morales and his party. On Friday he will begin an eight-nation tour, starting 
in Cuba and including Spain, France, Belgium, China and Brazil. 

      Yet the effort to assure a smooth transition and meet the expectations of 
his supporters has led to some mixed signals and raised questions about 
Morales's commitment to democracy. 

      On the economic front, Morales continues to assert Bolivia's right to 
nationalize all natural resource industries, adding that the country's 
contracts with foreign oil firms are "null and void." 

      But he also says there will be no expropriation of foreign investments 
and he has encouraged international participation in a $500 million mining 
project, known as El Mutún, near the border with Brazil. Foreign investors 
expected to bid on the project include the German firm Lurgi and Rio Tinto of 
Britain. 

      As a result of these conflicting messages, clarifying exactly what 
Morales means by nationalization will be high on his agenda in Spain and 
Brazil, the two countries with the largest investments in Bolivia's 
hydrocarbons sector. 

      With respect to coca, Morales has frequently said that it should be legal 
and that export markets for products like coca tea should be opened. Yet 
legalization was not among the priority issues on the campaign material of the 
Movement Toward Socialism and Morales has said that the level of legal coca in 
Bolivia will be determined by a study to be funded by the European Union. 

      That nuanced position may be an attempt to assuage the United States, 
which holds considerable leverage here and is likely to oppose any policy 
change that could lead to increased drug trafficking. 

      At a press conference in the capital following the election, Morales 
said: "Cocaine is not part of Bolivian or Andean culture. That's why our policy 
will be zero cocaine, zero drug trafficking, but never zero coca." He added 
that his government would seek an agreement with the United States for an 
"effective" fight against drug trafficking. 

      If the coca issue does alienate Washington, Bolivia could lose much of 
the estimated $150 million it receives annually in assistance, as well as 
nearly $600 million in potential aid from the Bush administration's Millennium 
Challenge Account. 

      Domestically, Morales has raised eyebrows with his criticism of the 
electoral court, which he says was biased against him in the run-up to the 
election. 

      "Everyone knows that the court is a product of the old parties," Morales 
said last week. "If I were a member of that court, I would resign." 

      Comments like that have raised fears that he plans to weaken the court in 
advance of a constitutional assembly due to be chosen next July. 

     


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