[nasional_list] [ppiindia] Back to the drawing board in East Timor

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**http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HF30Ae02.html


 Jun 30, 2006 


Back to the drawing board in East Timor
By Adam Wolfe 


In April, Paul Wolfowitz, the World Bank president, visited East Timor and 
praised the "bustling markets, the rebuilt schools, the functioning government 
- and above all, the peace and stability". East Timor, the world's youngest 
country and one of the smallest, was widely considered a success story, a model 
for future and current United Nations nation-building missions. 

Just weeks after Wolfowitz hailed the country's "remarkable story", East Timor 
nearly collapsed. Four days after the country celebrated its fourth 
anniversary, it asked for the return of international peacekeepers. 

The collapse seems to have taken the donor community by surprise, and exposed 
ethnic tensions few recognized as late as

 

three months ago. Governmental mismanagement, corruption, political positioning 
for an upcoming election and simmering ethnic tensions acted as kindling for 
the fiery dispute between the prime minister and the president, which 
culminated on Monday when the prime minister stepped down. As Australian 
peacekeepers seek to restore order, East Timor now faces the challenge of 
rebuilding its political institutions. 

The current crisis stems from an ethnic imbalance in the country's armed 
forces, but its roots are political. Most of the officers are from the eastern 
regions, while the majority of the rank-and-file men come from the west. When a 
group of soldiers protested the discrimination in March and called for the 
dismissal of prime minister Mari Alkatiri, the government sacked about 600 of 
the country's 1,400 soldiers. A group of about 500 of the dismissed soldiers 
sparked large-scale riots in Dili on April 28 - including looting, arson, and 
the murder of at least five civilians - then took to the hills in the country's 
interior, where they remain. 

Armed gangs took advantage of the security void, and terrorized eastern 
descendents in the western regions. Thousands in Dili and the surrounding 
region fled their homes out of fear of further violence. Small battles between 
security forces and their former colleagues popped up throughout May and gang 
violence increased. 

Until a few months ago, few recognized any ethnic differences in the 
population, let alone within the military. There is little record of any divide 
between the Lorosae in the east and the Loromonu in the west. One explanation 
is that the Lorosae consider themselves closer to the guerrillas who fought 
against Indonesia, while the Loromonu are closer to the former occupying 
country. Resistance to Indonesian rule, however, was fairly uniform by most 
accounts. 

When the Loromonu soldiers protested the perceived discrimination in pay and 
promotions, it was the first most observers had heard of such an ethnic divide. 
While political gain was likely at the heart of the initial protest by the 
soldiers, street gangs used the divide for their own objectives. The street 
gangs emerged from the martial-arts groups that formed during the Indonesian 
occupation; moreover, the 70% unemployment rate in Dili has made recruiting 
easy. The looting and violence launched by the street gangs in the wake of the 
soldiers' protests have caused an estimated 75% of Dili's population to flee 
their homes. 

While the current divide in East Timor does have an aspect of ethnic tension, 
its roots are political. Former prime minister Alkatiri led the Fretilin Party, 
which controls 55 seats in the 88-seat parliament. Alkatiri is feuding, again, 
with President Xanana Gusmao. When East Timor was drafting its constitution, 
Alkatiri was able to leverage the support of the Fretilin Party to establish a 
parliamentary system. Gusmao and his supporters preferred a presidential 
system, knowing that they could not compete against the Fretilin Party machine 
within a parliament, but would easily win a popular election. This proved an 
accurate assessment, and the wildly popular Gusmao now holds the largely 
ceremonial role of president, while Alkatiri controlled the government until 
Monday. 
Gusmao has supported the opposition parties - the Democratic Party and the 
Social Democratic Party - and the political divide between the two leaders has 
filtered down through the ranks in government institutions, including the 
military. Alkatiri, an Arab Muslim, further caused public resentment by taking 
on powerful groups, including the Catholic Church - which counts 90% of the 
population as followers - when he made religious education optional rather than 
compulsory. 

Although the prime minister has stepped down, his replacement is likely to 
reignite the political tensions that have been further strained by the current 
crisis. President Gusmao, using powers some have questioned as 
unconstitutional, assumed from the prime minister the power of overseeing the 
security forces after the soldiers' protest. He then gave Jose Ramos Horta, the 
Nobel Peace Prize-winning foreign minister and Gusmao's longtime ally, the 
Defense and Interior portfolios and asked for the prime minister's resignation. 

Alkatiri, using the support of his dominant Fretilin Party, refused to step 
down. Gusmao then threatened to resign if Alkatiri would not; he later backed 
away from this announcement. Alkatiri's position was weakened by an Australian 
documentary that linked him and other Fretilin leaders to an alleged plot to 
arm a civil militia. Then, on Sunday, Ramos Horta, via a text message, quit the 
government to protest against Alkatiri staying on. The following day, Alkatiri 
resigned. 

Alkatiri's resignation, however, will not end the political crisis. In fact, 
the following day, thousands of Fretilin supporters gathered in the streets to 
show their support for Alkatiri. This will make Gusmao's preferred method of 
resolving the crisis - appointing an interim prime minister to serve until 
elections next year - more difficult to implement. Gusmao and the donor 
community prefer to see a non-Fretilin prime minister, specifically Ramos 
Horta, in office until the scheduled elections. Fretilin prefers to select the 
next prime minister from its own ranks; its likely candidates are Ana Pessoa 
Pinto, Ramos Horta's ex-wife, who was acting as vice minister to Alkatiri, or 
Arsenio Paixao Bano, the young minister for labor and solidarity. 

Holding elections as scheduled would signal that the country's political 
institutions have not been broken by the current crisis. Dissolving the 
government and holding early elections in the face of protests would have the 
opposite effect. Gusmao is negotiating with Fretilin leaders to install an 
interim prime minister, but if the negotiations are stalled, he may be forced 
to dissolve the government. 

International reaction to the crisis
At the request of East Timor's president, Australia sent about 150 commandos to 
quell the violence on May 25, followed by an international force of about 2,500 
troops from Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Portugal. Australia's interest 
in East Timor dates back to 1999, when it led the peacekeeping mission to the 
tiny country after it voted for its independence from Indonesia. There are 
economic interests for Australia as well: in January, East Timor and Australia 
signed a deal to divide billions of dollars in expected revenues from oil and 
gas deposits in the Timor Sea. 

This deployment, however, is another sign of Australia's growing peacekeeping 
presence in the region. It has several hundred soldiers and police in the 
Solomon Islands. Teams of Australian civil servants are working to rebuild the 
public service in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. The police commissioner and 
several judges in Fiji are Australian. 

There are concerns in Canberra that these deployments may be unsustainable. The 
military budget is set to increase by 11% next year and at least 3% each year 
until 2010. Also, Australia's growing security role in the region is likely to 
strain relations further with Indonesia. For these reasons, the UN can be 
expected to play a larger role in the stabilization mission in the near future, 
although Australia will maintain a leading role in any new UN mission in East 
Timor. 

The UN's role in East Timor can be expected to take on greater importance in 
the near future, but many have blamed the current breakdown on the previous UN 
mission. On June 21, the UN Security Council asked the Secretary General'S 
Office to prepare a report on taking over the security mission from Australia 
at the end of the year, to stay on at least through the elections scheduled for 
2007. 

While the UN-led peacekeeping mission after East Timor's vote for independence 
in 1999 was considered a success by most, there was a debate within the 
organization about drawing down the mission last year. Those on the ground in 
East Timor cited the need for the UN to maintain its large presence in the 
country, but the UN Security Council allowed the mission to be scaled down 
dramatically in the past year, with only a small political aspect remaining, 
and even that only remains because of two extensions that have been granted 
after the crisis sparked by the protesting soldiers. 

The UN has been criticized for leaving East Timor too early, before it was able 
to build the necessary political institutions. The Security Council wanted to 
conclude its mission to the country that was costing hundreds of millions of 
dollars each year, and it was scheduled to depart in May. UN reforms enacted 
since the original mission in East Timor may help prevent relapses like the 
current crisis in Dili. 

The newly created UN Peacekeeping Commission is to coordinate development, 
security, and political transitions in post-conflict societies. However, this 
new "layer of bureaucracy", as a US congressional report calls the commission, 
will not be able to act if the Security Council does not will it to do so. 
Current UN missions in Liberia and Afghanistan can only be expected to stay on 
as long as the Security Council considers it necessary. These missions will 
likely point to the example of East Timor for extensions. 

East Timor's current crisis - in which half the army deserted and is encamped 
in the country's hills, 130,000 people have fled their homes in fear of gang 
violence, the prime minister has quit his post, and an international 
peacekeeping mission led by Australia attempts to keep the peace - has taken 
the international community by surprise. The initial response by Australia is 
further evidence of its growing security role in the region. While the UN has 
taken much of the blame for allowing the crisis to come to a head, it is likely 
to reinsert itself vigorously, if only to make East Timor an example, once 
again, of its role in nation-building. 

Still, while the Australian-led peacekeeping mission may be able to contain the 
violence, and a political solution may soon be found to resolve the split 
between the president and the Fretilin Party, an economic solution will be 
needed to make any forthcoming peace stick. East Timor is the poorest country 
in Asia. Although the billions of dollars in potential revenue from oil and gas 
fields in the Timor Sea will generate revenue, the country will need to combat 
the armed gangs that have terrorized Dili during the political crisis. 

The political crisis has exposed the weaknesses of East Timor's government and 
the country's underlying social tensions, for which a long-term solution has 
yet to be found. 

Published with permission of the Power and Interest News Report, an 
analysis-based publication that seeks to provide insight into various 
conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. All comments should 
be directed to content@xxxxxxxx
 .

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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