[nasional_list] [ppiindia] Aceh: Now for the Hard Part

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**http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4049

Aceh: Now for the Hard Part

Asia Briefing N°48 
29 March 2006 
OVERVIEW

Just past the half-year mark of the agreement to end the conflict in Aceh, 
several long-anticipated problems are surfacing. None by itself is grave enough 
to derail the 15 August 2005 accord between the Indonesian government and the 
Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM); the peace process remains very 
much on track. But their convergence means that more than ever, President 
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla will have to exert 
leadership, and international donors will have to constantly assess the 
political impact of their assistance to prevent any backsliding. 

The problems include differences between Jakarta and Aceh over the concept of 
self-government; efforts to divide the province; questions over who can run in 
local elections and when those elections take place; urgent employment needs of 
returning GAM members; and oversight of funding for reintegration programs.

The most contentious issue is the draft law on governing Aceh that is supposed 
to incorporate the provisions of the 15 August memorandum of understanding 
(MoU) and replace a 2001 law that gave Aceh "special autonomy" within the 
Indonesian republic. The ministry of home affairs watered down a draft produced 
in Aceh through a wide public consultation and submitted the diluted version to 
the Indonesian parliament. Concern over the weakened bill is not confined to 
GAM but is shared among all in Aceh - and there are thousands - who took part 
in the original drafting or in subsequent discussions. Intensive efforts are 
underway to restore key provisions of the Aceh draft, and there is still a 
chance a reasonable compromise could emerge. 

The campaign to carve two new provinces out of Aceh remains an irritant but 
appears to have no support from the Yudhoyono goverment. 

Another issue, repeatedly flagged by Crisis Group, is the reintegration of GAM 
members. Securing adequate livelihoods for the 3,000 combatants mentioned in 
the August agreement was going to be difficult enough, given the massive needs 
in Aceh after the tsunami. It has become increasingly clear, however, that 
there are more GAM members needing and expecting reintegration assistance than 
was previously thought. How to allocate reintegration payments budgeted for 
3,000 among a much larger number is as much an issue for GAM as for the 
government and international agencies, but the program set up to address this 
in Aceh may cause as many problems as it solves. 

A final issue is the role of the European-led Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) if 
local elections are delayed, as now seems inevitable. Originally scheduled for 
26 April 2006, they are now likely to be postponed until late July or August, 
given both delays in passing the above law and the logistics of post-tsunami 
registration. This means they will almost certainly take place after the AMM's 
newly-extended term expires. The AMM is now scheduled to leave Aceh on 15 June 
2006. Many Acehnese are concerned because the pre-election period is precisely 
when clashes requiring a neutral arbiter may erupt.

Jakarta/Brussels, 29 March 2006


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