Phil Enns imagines five nuclear weapons detonated simultaneously in five major cities and writes:
There would still be a military and chain of command capable of projecting its power to a degree that would ensure deterrence against any other nation wanting to take advantage of the situation.
Maybe not. Most studies are conducted with optimistic projections of *tiny* 10 k or 550 k bombs on single cities. I give some data below in case anyone cares to examine the issue.
Even without factoring in EMP effects, riots, chaos, etc., a recent study on this subject, a study that did not use all of the most populated US cities, postulating the use of *small* nuclear weapons (tiny 10-kiloton and 550 kiloton bombs) concluded:
"Among the consequences of this outcome would be the probable *loss* of command-and-control, mass casualties that will have to be treated in an unorganized response by hospitals on the periphery, as well as other expected chaotic outcomes from inadequate administration in a crisis."*
In this optimistic scenario, over 14 million people would be immediately killed or suffer burns. Many more would begin to develop radiation sickness and cancers.
Likely short-term consequences of one attack on LA include: *shut-down of borders, *elimination of civil liberties, *collapse of the US economy, and *nuclear retaliation, possibly on all "usual suspects" RAND admits that it has no way to assess damage beyond a one-month window.A Harvard panel -- discussing tiny 10 kiloton detonations -- also disagrees with Phil, noting that "in the event that multiple bombs are either threatened or detonated in multiple U.S. cities, it may be impossible to prevent a massive urban evacuation that could paralyze the U.S. interstate highway system."**
The RAND*** study examining that single, tiny nuke attack on the LA ports concludes: "Given these conditions, all U.S. ports would likely close indefinitely or operate at a substantially reduced level following the attack. This would severely disrupt the availability of basic goods and petroleum throughout the country."
____ * abstract here http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/6/1/5/abstract/ full article here http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/6/1/5 ** http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/17269/pdp_hosts_wmd_workshop_on_the_day_after_a_nuclear_attack.html *** http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/2006/RAND_TR391.pdf ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html
