[lit-ideas] Re: US and America
- From: Andy Amago <aamago@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2007 22:38:39 -0500 (GMT-05:00)
I have also lived through a gazillion predictions, the most recent of which is
that the most valuable real estate in the relatively near future (due to baby
boom retirement) will be along the coasts. If you can see the ocean from your
window, the real estate pundits say, you've got valuable property. Then, oops,
along comes global warming and says that if you can see the ocean from your
window you're probably drowning. (Baby boomers are probably safe though. It's
their grandchildren who will be moving inland.) As Mark Twain said, in my life
I've worried about many things. Some of the actually happened. The predictions
about the dwindling water supply are happening though. The Colorado River is
drying up, and a lot of people depend on it. Speaking of entrepreneurs, the
really farsighted ones have been buying up water rights (or whatever the legal
terminology is) for quite some time now.
On the whole, the article Omar posted exactly describes today's situation with
the demise of our industrial base, the debt, the hyperconsumerism, the
contracting of resources. I don't know if China's rise was predicted, it's
been gradual and gaining momentum for a long time although I do remember
reading about it years ago. Most Americans still aren't aware of what's going
on with China and India. As far as what happens to the military equipment when
the oil runs out, the U.S. has the attitude that we'll worry about it when it
gets here. I wonder if the oil companies don't have something up their
sleeves. It's hard to imagine they'll go down without a fight. They're
looking to the thawing of the frozen reserves in the Arctic. Seems geothermal
would be much more certain. They wouldn't have to worry about their employees
being abducted either, like in Nigeria (the sweetest crude on the planet), but
they would have to spend money developing the technology. Ugh, wouldn't want
to do that. They might be milking the cash cow while they can and also not
worrying terribly about the future.
-----Original Message-----
>From: John McCreery <john.mccreery@xxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Feb 25, 2007 8:42 PM
>To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: US and America
>
>On 2/26/07, Andy Amago <aamago@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> This is a great article, Omar. From my perspective it captures the
>> situation perfectly. He doesn't mention the dwindling water supply of the
>> U.S., another thing that is completely ignored by the clueless masses, but
>> otherwise it's exactly on target. Thanks for posting it.
>
>I have a more complex reaction. This article is a scenario, many of
>whose assumptions I find plausible. The impact on the U.S. economy of
>a peak oil event in which the amount of oil available begins to
>decline is sure to be profound. My wife and I remark on this every
>time we visit our daughter in Texas and note that she and her husband
>own two cars, necessary because they both commute. Their home is,
>moreover, located in a suburb, where the houses and the golf course
>are very nice. The nearest shopping is ten minutes drive away. A rise
>of even a dollar a gallon in the price of gasoline has a serious
>effect on their household budget, and, since both are officers in the
>U.S. military, they are relatively well off. What will happen when my
>daughter leaves the service this coming June and they are still stuck
>in Corpus for another year-and-a-half because of her husband's
>commitment, and they go from two officers' salaries to one is,
>however, a major concern for them. So is the fact that a sharp rise in
>fuel prices might make their suburb less attractive, making it harder
>to sell their house when they have to move on.
>
>They are, however, relatively well off. The people who will feel the
>pinch most keenly are those whose livelihoods depend on the manual
>labor and service trades, who, because of the city's layout and lack
>of public transportation, must also have cars to get about. Plus, note
>how many of those jobs, at fast food or family restaurants, filling
>stations, or discount stores, depend on customers who are able to
>drive to their locations. Think, too, of the better paying jobs at the
>oil refineries that are, after the military, the area's largest
>employers. There are multiple feedback loops here. A scenario in which
>a sudden shortage of petroleum or a sharp rise in price would gut the
>local economy is far from unthinkable.
>
>Mention of the military suggests other possible implications. I note
>how much the U.S. ability to "project power" depends on large,
>petroleum fuel hungry machines. What happens if they run out of gas?
>
>So far, the scenario this article depicts appears altogether too
>plausible. On the other hand, "sudden" is a key assumption. So is the
>negative assumption that there is no new technology to cushion the
>switch from oil-dependence to other energy sources. And, in my case,
>there is a life a large part of which has been spent reading science
>fiction, in which catastrophic scenarios are a common plot element. It
>is interesting whenever I go back to reread one of my classics to
>realize how differently the world has turned out from what seemed
>inevitable even just three or four decades ago. I turn then to the
>recent novels of, for example, Bruce Sterling, and wonder how far they
>will be off the mark because of developments we don't even begin to
>imagine yet.
>
>
>John
>
>
>
>--
>John McCreery
>The Word Works, Ltd., Yokohama, JAPAN
>Tel. +81-45-314-9324
>http://www.wordworks.jp/
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