[lit-ideas] The end?
- From: "Andreas Ramos" <andreas@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "Lit-Ideas" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2007 12:55:26 -0800
I read the IPCC's report on global warming. ( http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
20 pages)
The key points:
- Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have spiked in the last century (see charts, p.
15.) From ice cores, we know the natural trends (solar activity, volcanoes, etc.) for the
last 650,000 years. Human activity (agriculture, industry, use of oil) created the spikes.
- The ocean is absorbing 80% of the heat. The oceans are warming down to 3,000 meters (1.8
miles). As the oceans becomes warmer, they expand. Coastal areas will be flooded.
- The oceans are absorbing carbon dioxide (p. 12). This makes water more acidic, which
dissolves sea shells. Much of plankton and all the micro life forms in the oceans will be
extinct. Fish depend on those micro lifeforms.
- Even if we completely stop the increase of gases today, global warming will continue to
increase for more than 1,000 years (p. 13).
This means we've lost New York City. Most of England. Bangladesh. These will not exist
several hundred years from now.
The economic impact will be catastrophic. The Stern Report by the British Treasury predicts
a 20% decline in the global economy. This means a return to the Great Depression of the
1930s. This will cause wars and turmoil.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=2&subID=1055&p=3
Which brings up the question: What will the future be like? It'll be very different from
what we know today: no jet travel, practically no use of oil for transportation, severely
reduced agriculture, which means a smaller global population. Small agrarian societies with
light industries. No urban sprawl. No air conditioning. Most of the USA will be dry desert.
Severe droughts that last decades. Huge hurricanes.
And this assumes the global food chain doesn't collapse. Will humanity survive?
yrs,
andreas
www.andreas.com
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