Here's part of the strategic summary of Cordesman
& Al-Rodhan: Iranian Nuclear Weapons, The Options
if Diplomacy Fails 4/7/06 Page 47. The second
paragraph mentions the impact on oil markets, but
the issue itself is proliferation.
Iranian ambiguity also may trigger Saudi and
Egyptian efforts to become nuclear powers. They
might show restraint if the US could provide
convincing ballistic and cruise missile defenses,
and the same form of extended deterrence it once
provided to Germany during the Cold War. But,
these options are speculative and do not yet
exist. Saudi Arabia has already said that it has
examined nuclear options and rejected them, but
this is no certainty and inevitably depends on
Iranian action.
The end result is the prospect of a far more
threatening mix of CBRN capabilities in the Gulf
region, and the areas that most models project as
the main source of continued world oil and gas
exports beyond 2015. It is also the threat of more
polarization between Sunni and Shi’ite, and
broader regional tensions and actions that spill
over out of the confrontation over Iran's nuclear
activities. None of these prospects are pleasant.
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