[lit-ideas] Re: Ought we to do something about Iran?
- From: Eric Yost <eyost1132@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 21:57:21 -0500
>>Count on the fact that young Iranians, even
those who may be opposed to the current regime,
will rally to their country's defense if we attack
it (just like Americans would if the USA were
attacked).
This argument, which seemed important, is now
starting to look wrong-headed. Seems that the
intention of acquiring nuclear weapons is in fact
uniting Iran. Consider this excerpt from
http://www.slate.com/id/2135232/fr/rss/
____
The regime has been extraordinarily effective in
galvanizing support from Iranians across the
political spectrum on the nuclear issue. Nuclear
energy has become intimately linked to the
national character, heralded as an inalienable
right. Newspaper editors have been warned against
deviating from the official line in their
treatment of things nuclear, while melodramatic TV
programs promote the merits of nuclear energy and,
by extension, independence, on a daily basis.
And what of the reformist politicians Western
pundits love to wax lyrical about? In his modest
office at Tehran University, Hamid Reza Jaleipour,
a strategist with Mosharekat, the country's
largest reformist faction, told me, "Our hands are
tied, we can't even move." Other than foiled
presidential candidate and former parliamentary
speaker Mehdi Karroubi's attempt to launch a
newspaper and satellite channel (the latter
already blocked), little initiative has been taken
to reinvigorate a reformist camp that is
devastatingly out of touch with the majority of
the Iranian people. Outside Iran, the exiled
Mujahideen Khalq Organization, which is probably
the largest opposition bloc, is more of a cult
than a viable political alternative. And within
Iran, external support, especially from America,
would be the kiss of death—immediately
delegitimizing any opposition group.
So, how far can the regime afford to push the
nuclear issue? Plainly, it believes it can
manipulate oil prices at will and seems to think
that clutch trading partners Russia and China,
which have preached moderation until now, will
protect its interests in the end. Importantly,
Tuesday's "reporting" to the security council is
short of a more substantive "referral," and Iran's
nuclear dossier will not be considered by the
council until March. Negotiations about
outsourcing enrichment to Russia will continue,
and if it comes down to it, some of the more
intransigent members of the regime are already
saying that Iranians have survived sanctions
before—they can most certainly weather them again.
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