[list_indonesia] [ppiindia] Re: [KIB] : CIA Vision : Khilafah akan berdiri tahun 2020

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riza aulia <rz_aulia@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:CIA is a kind of 'optimitistic' that =
Chaliphate will be established soon, Insya Allah it will. The New Islamic S=
uperpower will challenge the present dying superpower, USA.
Islam will rule and that will be the end of history....
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CIA's 20:20 vision for the future Caliphate is short sighted=20=20

By Abid Mustafa

Al-Jazeerah, January 24, 2005

Source :=20

http://www.aljazeerah.info

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In December 2004, The National Intelligence Council of the CIA predicted th=
at in the year 2020 a new Caliphate would emerge on the world stage. The fi=
ndings were published in a 123-page report titled =93Mapping the Global Fut=
ure=94. The aim of the report is to prepare the next Bush administration fo=
r challenges that lie ahead by projecting current trends that may pose a th=
reat to US interest. The report is presented to the US president, members o=
f Congress, cabinet members and key officials involved in policymaking.=20

What is striking about the report is that it is full of references about po=
litical Islam and the various challenges it poses to US interests in the fo=
reseeable future. There is even a fictional scenario depicting the emergenc=
e of Caliphate state in 2020 and its impact on the international situation.=
=20

However, the report is predicated on assumptions which undermine the validi=
ty of the report in various parts, especially the section on the Caliphate.=
 Below is a critique of some of the arguments postulated in the fictional s=
cenario: -=20

The report asserts that the strength of the new Caliphate will be borne out=
 of the efforts of a global Islamic movement taking power. While it may be =
true that a global Islamic movement may instigate civil disobedience or ini=
tiate a coup to bring about the Caliphate, its strength and longevity is de=
pendent upon something entirely different.=20

Intellectual conviction in a common set of values amongst the citizens of a=
 state is the measure of the state=92s strength and not the movement, which=
 founded the state. The Soviet Union collapsed not because it was deficient=
 in technology, but because its people abandoned communism and the communis=
t party was powerless to convince them otherwise.=20

An accurate appraisal of the convictions of the Muslim masses for the resum=
ption of the Islamic way of life through the re-establishment of the Caliph=
ate is the single most important factor in determining whether the Caliphat=
e will succeed or fail in the 21st century. This is more important than tec=
hnology and resources. Both of which can be quickly gained as long as the C=
aliphate is able to defend itself and base its progress exclusively on the =
Islamic ideology.=20

Whenever Islamic movements are taken as the sole gauge for estimating the e=
xtent of Islamic revival in Muslim countries a skewed picture will always e=
merge. The CIA is not alone in employing this false standard. The practice =
is wide spread and has tainted the analysis of respected think tanks and th=
e writings of some notable commentators such as Francis Fukuyama and Samuel=
 P. Huntington.=20

This flaw is not the result of their malice towards Islam, but is due to th=
eir adherence to the philosophy of individualism, which has marred their un=
derstanding of society and reduced it to a collection of individuals.=20

A proper understanding of society reveals that it is composed of individual=
s, which are bonded together by common thoughts and emotions, and live unde=
r a specific system. The degree of support amongst people towards the exist=
ing system of governance or for an alternative system of ruling can only be=
 ascertained through the evaluation of these common thoughts and emotion.=20

The attachment to individualism has led the west to grossly underestimate t=
he penetration of Islamic thoughts and sentiments in the Muslim countries, =
and also to miscalculate the wide spread support for the re-establishment o=
f the Caliphate.=20

Another point of contention in the report is the claim that the emergence o=
f the Caliphate will not cause the regimes in Muslim countries to collapse =
one after the other =96 the domino effect.=20

Again this understanding is derived from an incorrect understanding of soci=
ety. A cursory study of the Muslim world shows that there exists strong pol=
arisation in viewpoints between the regimes and the people they govern. Bef=
ore the collapse of the baath regime, Saddam an atheist was delivering spee=
ches laced with Islamic terms. He did this, because he reaslised that the p=
eople were no longer motivated by baathism, secularism or Arabism and only =
responded to Islam. Similarly, when Musharraf sided with America=92s war ag=
ainst Afghanistan he had to quote lengthy passages from life of the messeng=
er (saw) to justify his stance.=20

The conflict between maintaining the secular order and preventing political=
 Islam from assuming power is a daily occurrence in much of the Muslim worl=
d. The regimes in the Muslim world are viewed as the custodians of western =
interests and antagonistic towards Islam. Muslims simply loathed these regi=
mes and are eager to extinguish their existence. The only reason these regi=
me survive is because of the dogged support from western governments.=20

Today, the Islamic ummah stands on the cusp of a monumental change, just as=
 the Warsaw pact countries stood some 18 years ago. The iron curtain came d=
own because people had changed their viewpoint from communism to capitalism=
. Likewise the Muslim ummah has abandoned both communism and capitalism, an=
d is waiting for the emergence of the Caliphate, which will cause these reg=
imes to collapse in spectacular fashion, only to be absorbed by the Calipha=
te.=20

Finally the report claims that Muslims would find the temptations of wester=
n materialism too much to bear, causing them to flee the shores of the new =
Caliphate. This view is obviously founded on the prevalent western notion t=
hat the Caliphate is the antithesis to modernisation. Another factor that e=
nhances this perception amongst westerners is the current exodus of Muslims=
 from the Islamic world to the west.=20

Nothing could be further from the truth. First, the Caliphate that Muslims =
want to establish is the rightly guided Caliphate, which was at the zenith =
of human civilisation. A historical fact widely recognised by several emine=
nt experts on Islam- most notably Bernard Lewis.=20

Second, the mass migration of Muslims to the west is a consequence of weste=
rn foreign policy ventures in Muslim world and not because of Muslim infatu=
ation with western values. Most migrants, if not all are either economic mi=
grants or political asylum seekers escaping the tyranny of regimes often su=
pported by western governments.=20

Even those Muslims, who have settled in the west, have yet to embrace secul=
ar values for fear of corrupting their Islam. The recent endeavour by Europ=
e to coerce its Muslim population to adopt western values speaks volumes fo=
r Europe=92s obsession with secularising Muslims and runs counter to the st=
ereotyped image projected by the western media that Muslims are pleading to=
 be westernised.=20

The typecasting of Muslims is based on the erroneous understanding of anti-=
western feeling that pervades the Muslim world. Often in western circles, a=
nti-western sentiments are equated with the total rejection of western civi=
lisation and attributed to the fundamentalist camp.=20

To make matters worse, the desire amongst Muslims to own western goods are =
interpreted as a craving for the western way of life. Westerners often clas=
sify those who display admiration for western goods into the moderate camp.=
=20

To pigeonhole Muslims into the two camps based on such interpretations is w=
rong. This is because the anti-western rhetoric found amongst Muslims is a =
denunciation of western culture and not of western goods. Likewise, the exp=
ression for the admiration for western products is an acknowledgement of th=
e superior quality of the goods and is not an affirmation for the wholesale=
 acceptance of western culture.=20

For the first time in many years, the Muslim world has undergone a radical =
transformation in reconciling which aspects of the western way of life can =
be accepted or rejected with Islam. Muslims today accept western goods such=
 as DVDs, Satellites Dishes, and TVs only because such items do not contrad=
ict their Islamic viewpoint. On the other hand western concepts such as fre=
edom, democracy and individualism are discarded because are deemed to contr=
adict Islam.=20

Previously, the Muslim world was torn between two factions i.e. the moderni=
sts who wanted to adopt everything from the west and the traditionalists wh=
o were keen to rebuff all aspects of western civilisation. This mentality s=
tifled progress and allowed the west to establish their hegemony over Musli=
m lands.=20

Today, it is not Muslims who are holding themselves back from human advance=
ment and meeting the demands of the 21st century, but rather it is the west=
 that chooses to suppress these developments and insists on imposing its va=
lues upon the Muslim masses in connivance with the regimes of the Muslim wo=
rld.=20

This attitude has not only contributed to the west=92s misunderstanding of =
Islam, but has encouraged the west to define an inequitable relationship wi=
th the Muslim world. Furthermore, the mindset has prompted the west to shun=
 everything to do with Islam. West=92s occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan h=
as already highlighted the abuse of the Muslim people, the pillage of their=
 land and denigration of Islam.=20

If this attitude is not reversed then the west will find itself in a precar=
ious position on two fronts.=20

First, the Caliphate will be a strong, progressive state charting a new des=
tiny for the Muslim people after liberating them from the political, milita=
ry and economic hegemony of the west. The west weakened by this abrupt loss=
 of control will struggle to maintain its dominance in world affairs.=20

Secondly, the Caliphate will swiftly harness the synergy between Islam and =
science, thereby surpassing the west in terms of inventions, technologies a=
nd new scientific discoveries. Given the west=92s negative attitudes toward=
s all things Islamic, it will find itself closing the doors to knowledge an=
d shielding its people from progress and challenges of 21st century.=20

 Also click : http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s3.html#scen



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