[LRflex] Re: The DMR as a Collectible.

Guy's 
  One thing that really has me courious is Leica's reputation for backing their 
products. Up until just a few years ago you could send any camera into Leica 
and get it repaired. They just recently stoped repairing SCM if I recall. Even 
if the DMR is dead how long will Leica back it? Furthermore as they build their 
inhouse programing dept. might we not see a ver. 1.3 anyways esp if the R10 is 
20 months out.
  Something here doesn't sit quite right from a marketing standpoint. If all 
this is true,Leica will not have an R or digital Reflex product for 20+ months. 
No DMR would kill any R9 sales. Film ves digi arguments can be what they are, 
but the fact is, film camera sales are pretty much dead.  What doesn't add up 
here?

  At 08/02/2007, you wrote:
>Guys
>
>I have other thought. =20
>Barbie dolls are collectible, it is true as it is easy to maintain and =
>I
>saw a 100 years old teddy bear and it is still in good condition. But =
>the
>question for DMR is, how long it can last? Those electronics items are =
>not
>predictable, I have a TV works fine for 4 years and dead one day =
>suddenly,
>and few other electronics appliances were not working suddenly. No sure =
>for
>Dlsr and DMRs, but I guess five years is maximum already. for such short
>life cycle, it should be a consumable item, the one way to maximize the
>value is : use it, use it and use it. So the average click cost will be
>lower, may be 10 cent one click^_^
>
>Best Regards=20
>tt =20


Hi TT!

Not sure I agree with you on the 5 year life of the DMR. It's true, 
that in terms of obsolescence, it may be 5 years and then things will 
be so much better than we will all want to dump our DMRs. But, in 
terms of actual, useable life ... I suspect more like 20 years.

I spent 30 years in retail electronics, and the general rule went 
like this. If it (whatever electronic device it is) survives 30 
days, it will most likely make a year, without failure. If it makes 
a year, chances are better than 90% that it will make 12 to 15 years 
without a failure.

To have a TV fail in 4 years is most unusual, though it does 
happen. Even so, you could have had it repaired and obtained another 
10 to 15 years out of it, most likely without further problems. Just 
because something fails does not mean it is disposable.

The nature of electronics is such that if a part is going to fail, it 
will nearly always do so in the first 30 days. I used this knowledge 
to my advantage. From 1974 until I closed my shop in 1998, I offered 
a 7 year written guarantee on every piece of stereo equipment I sold, 
without charge. How could I do this? By padding the price to cover 
the repair costs? No.

I could do this because 90% of all failures, that occur in the first 
10 years, occur in the first 30 days. Of the last 10% of the 
failures, 90% of them occur before the end of the fist year. So, I 
am left with just 1% of the failures to pay for, after the first 
year. Since all products have a minimum of a 1 year warranty, 99% of 
all failures were covered by the maker, not me!

Because of this (and the fact that many brands had warranties longer 
than 1 year) my costs to pay for a 7 year guarantee, on $1,000,000 
per annum of merchandise was usually less than $300!

Since DMR's are essentially electronic devices, if they are not 
abused, and survive the first year, there is not reason that they 
should not go 12 to 15 years (or more) without failure.

So, if you can live with 10 megapixels.....



---

David Young,
Logan Lake, CANADA

Wildlife Photographs: http://www.telyt.com/
Personal Web-pages: http://www3.telus.net/~telyt




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