[LRflex] Re: The DMR as a Collectible.
- From: David Young <telyt@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: leicareflex@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 08 Feb 2007 18:41:02 -0800
At 08/02/2007, you wrote:
>Guys
>
>I have other thought. =20
>Barbie dolls are collectible, it is true as it is easy to maintain and =
>I
>saw a 100 years old teddy bear and it is still in good condition. But =
>the
>question for DMR is, how long it can last? Those electronics items are =
>not
>predictable, I have a TV works fine for 4 years and dead one day =
>suddenly,
>and few other electronics appliances were not working suddenly. No sure =
>for
>Dlsr and DMRs, but I guess five years is maximum already. for such short
>life cycle, it should be a consumable item, the one way to maximize the
>value is : use it, use it and use it. So the average click cost will be
>lower, may be 10 cent one click^_^
>
>Best Regards=20
>tt =20
Hi TT!
Not sure I agree with you on the 5 year life of the DMR. It's true,
that in terms of obsolescence, it may be 5 years and then things will
be so much better than we will all want to dump our DMRs. But, in
terms of actual, useable life ... I suspect more like 20 years.
I spent 30 years in retail electronics, and the general rule went
like this. If it (whatever electronic device it is) survives 30
days, it will most likely make a year, without failure. If it makes
a year, chances are better than 90% that it will make 12 to 15 years
without a failure.
To have a TV fail in 4 years is most unusual, though it does
happen. Even so, you could have had it repaired and obtained another
10 to 15 years out of it, most likely without further problems. Just
because something fails does not mean it is disposable.
The nature of electronics is such that if a part is going to fail, it
will nearly always do so in the first 30 days. I used this knowledge
to my advantage. From 1974 until I closed my shop in 1998, I offered
a 7 year written guarantee on every piece of stereo equipment I sold,
without charge. How could I do this? By padding the price to cover
the repair costs? No.
I could do this because 90% of all failures, that occur in the first
10 years, occur in the first 30 days. Of the last 10% of the
failures, 90% of them occur before the end of the fist year. So, I
am left with just 1% of the failures to pay for, after the first
year. Since all products have a minimum of a 1 year warranty, 99% of
all failures were covered by the maker, not me!
Because of this (and the fact that many brands had warranties longer
than 1 year) my costs to pay for a 7 year guarantee, on $1,000,000
per annum of merchandise was usually less than $300!
Since DMR's are essentially electronic devices, if they are not
abused, and survive the first year, there is not reason that they
should not go 12 to 15 years (or more) without failure.
So, if you can live with 10 megapixels.....
---
David Young,
Logan Lake, CANADA
Wildlife Photographs: http://www.telyt.com/
Personal Web-pages: http://www3.telus.net/~telyt
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