[jsfg_cinti] [Fwd: Help-Wanted Ads Signal Job Growth]

Help-Wanted Ads Signal Job Growth =

By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, April 14, 2004; Page E01 =

On the heels of March's surge in job creation, a series of media-company
financial reports in recent days indicate that help-wanted pages in
newspapers are swelling again, further sign that the labor market has tur=
ned the corner. =

The New York Times Co.'s help-wanted ad revenue rose 11.1 percent in Marc=
h
compared with March 2003, company officials reported Monday. Employment a=
d
revenue at Gannett Co., the nation's largest newspaper chain, leaped 22.9=

percent for the quarter that ended in March, the company said this week. =

Nineteen of Knight Ridder Inc.'s 31 newspapers reported gains in recruitm=
ent ads in February, many of them double-digit increases, according to co=
mpany financial documents released late last month. The jump in Knight Ri=
dder's help-wanted revenue was the first since December 2000. =

"This is a trend that started in October and November with a slow pickup
that has just continued," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Confere=
nce Board, a private research group that tracks help-wanted ads. "And the=
re's no indication this is a short period that will end soon." =

The job recovery after the 2001 recession was one of the weakest in recen=
t
history; the nation's payrolls have 111,000 fewer workers than they did 2=
7
months ago, when the economy began to grow again. However, since the Augu=
st
trough, employers have added 759,000 jobs, 308,000 of them in March alone=
=2E =

That trend is now showing up in the nation's newspapers, and economists h=
ave long considered help-wanted ad increases a positive harbinger for the=
 job market. The New York Times Co., which publishes the Times, the Bosto=
n Globe and 17 other newspapers, said this week that help-wanted revenue =
rose
sharply in March, at a rate more than double the 5.5 percent increase ove=
r
the entire first quarter. =

Gannett, which publishes 101 daily newspapers in the United States, said
revenue from advertisements overall, driven by help-wanted ads, increased=

16.1 percent in March from March 2003, and 12.6 percent in the entire fir=
st
quarter. In volume, inches of classified ads in Gannett newspapers rose a=

smaller 5.1 percent in March. =

The trend appears to have started before the Labor Department detected
actual payroll increases. The Tribune Co., which publishes the Chicago
Tribune, Los Angeles Times and Baltimore Sun, among others, said March 17=

that help-wanted ad revenues increased 16 percent in the three months tha=
t
ended Feb. 29. =

Knight Ridder reported March 22 that overall recruitment advertising rose=

5.4 percent in February, with gains totaling 14.7 percent in the San Jose=

Mercury News, 11.8 percent at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, 28.2 percent =
at
the Lexington Herald-Leader in Kentucky and 4.3 percent at the Miami Hera=
ld.

"February's help-wanted revenue was the first positive comparison since
December of 2000," Gary R. Effren, Knight Ridder's chief financial office=
r,
said at the time. "And that is clearly a welcome change." =

The Washington Post Co. will report its help-wanted ad revenue for the pa=
st
three months at the end of this month. =

The increase in employment advertising was not confined to newspapers. On=

April 1, Monster Worldwide Inc., parent company of the help-wanted Web si=
te
Monster.com, reported a surge in activity in March, with Texas, Oklahoma,=

Arkansas and Louisiana leading the pack. Over the past six months, job
demand has risen significantly in wholesale and retail sales, financial
operations, computer support and general management. =

Goldstein said the Conference Board has been tracking help-wanted ads for=
 50 years. Over that time, changes in volume have accurately predicted hi=
ring increases and declining unemployment rates. =

Jared Bernstein, a labor economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institu=
te, noted that long-term unemployment rates remain historically high, wag=
es have stagnated and working hours in the private sector fell in March, =
all indications that the labor market remains weak. In that environment, =
he said, he would be surprised that employers have to spend much on adver=
tising to find workers. =

He added that the number of want ads gives no indication of the kind of j=
obs available. Nonetheless, he did not dismiss the significance of the re=
cent totals entirely. =

"Neither I nor any objective economist ever found it convincing when Rona=
ld
Reagan and other politicians waved the want ads around and said there's n=
o
job problem," Bernstein said. "But if there's a positive spike in
help-wanted ads at a time when people believe we're turning a corner, it'=
s
yet another indicator that labor demand is coming back. =

"I think it's appropriate to call this a recovery formerly known as
jobless," he said. =

=A9 2004 The Washington Post Company =


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