[interact_list] [Macedonia] Pessimism or_about realities on the ground

From: Akio Fujita <A.Fujita@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: interact_list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Thu, 2 Aug 2001 12:43:42 +0100

[LA times only keep articles for 2 weeks on the website
and after that they will be moved to archive - and retrieval
is not free of charge, so I send whole article.]

A pessimistic or tough perspective -
in the midst of rush of 'Language deal was made' news reports
(since last night August 1st).

A.
--------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-000062536aug01.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dfrontpage

NEWS ANALYSIS
Macedonia Rift May Be Irreparable
-Balkans: Even if a peace accord is reached, leaders of the two ethnic
groups could be unable to sell it. -

By ALISSA J. RUBIN, TIMES STAFF WRITER

SKOPJE, Macedonia -- Macedonia is dividing along ethnic lines, and it
may be too late to stop it.

Regardless of the outcome of ongoing peace negotiations among political
leaders trying to halt a rebel insurgency, the divisions on the ground
are becoming so stark that it is hard to imagine how the nation's two
main ethnic groups will be able to live together again.

Already there are forced migrations, ensuring that areas of the country
are populated by a single ethnic group--either ethnic Albanian or
ethnic Macedonian. And in those areas of the country that are majority
ethnic Albanian, government armed forces have little control. "We did
not consider this conflict to be ethnic to begin with, but the longer
it takes for the peace process, the more likely that the results will
be the same as those you would see in an ethnic conflict," said Maki
Shinohara, a spokeswoman for the U.N. refugee agency.

James Pardew, a U.S. mediator trying to bring the two sides together,
expressed optimism Tuesday that an agreement could be close. One of the
ethnic Albanian negotiators, Imer Imeri, told the Reuters news agency
that agreement on the main sticking point--the use of Albanian as an
official language--was near.

But even if the political leaders' peace talks succeed, questions
remain about whether the two sides can sell the agreement. Macedonia's
parliament, feeling pressure from nationalists, may not be willing to
implement it. Furthermore, leaders of the ethnic Albanian guerrilla
movement have not been included in the negotiations and may not support
an agreement.

Diplomats say that in the best of circumstances, Macedonia will be more
divided in the future. And it could be in for a long period of sporadic
fighting and ethnic instability.

Elsewhere in the Balkans, ethnic groups have been driven at gunpoint
from their homes, especially from areas where they were in the
minority. Macedonia had escaped that fate, and it still is not
happening on the scale it did in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo, a province
of Serbia, Yugoslavia's dominant republic.

Ethnic Albanians make up at least 25% of Macedonia's population, while
ethnic Macedonians account for roughly two-thirds.

Forced migrations and the successful display of firepower by ethnic
Albanian guerrillas have undermined the confidence of the ethnic
Macedonian population.

"Life together is probably impossible from now on," said Slavko
Mangovski, editor of the Macedonian weekly magazine Makedonsko Sonce
(Macedonian Sun). "It is my belief that what the Albanians want is not
language rights--as they are saying in the peace talks--but territory."

Each side has lost control of territory to the other through what both
term "ethnic cleansing." Often, a relatively small, albeit
intimidating, incident is used to send a message. In the current
atmosphere of rising distrust and suspicion, it does not take much for
people to feel vulnerable.

"One day I recognized my neighbors on television in a uniform with
guns," said Boban Bogdanovski, 25, a native of the village of
Aracinovo, near the capital, Skopje. "With a gun, you go to fight. How
can I live here?"

Aracinovo was taken over by the National Liberation Army, the ethnic
Albanian guerrilla movement, and then was taken back by the government.

Bogdanovski and his family, who lived in adjacent houses, decided to
stay away from the village when the guerrillas first took over. Now,
even though it has been recovered by the government, he does not plan
to return. His house was destroyed during the fighting, and he said he
cannot imagine rebuilding there.

"I'll never feel safe in my village again," Bogdanovski said.

Human rights groups and observers tell other, similar stories.

In Tearce, a village in a northern area that is predominantly ethnic
Albanian, several houses were burned, sending a clear message to ethnic
Macedonians to get out. It appeared to work.

"We brought back a group of ethnic Macedonians after the guerrillas
were expelled, and as the buses were unloading, those ethnic
Macedonians who had stayed in the village told us they wanted to board
the buses and leave as soon as possible," said a Western diplomat, who
spoke on condition of anonymity. "That worries me."

Shinohara, of the U.N. refugee agency, said there has been "fairly
deliberate forced movement in the areas around Skopje directed at the
ethnic Macedonians" and noted that official figures, probably on the
low end, show that 8,000 ethnic Macedonians have left that area.

Similarly, there was looting and vandalism in the southern city of
Bitola that was directed at ethnic Albanians. The London-based
International Crisis Group reported that as a result of the Bitola
incidents, about 10,000 Albanians migrated from the city.

Altogether, about 44,000 people have been displaced within the country
of 2 million, according to the Macedonian Red Cross, and 121,000 more
have crossed the border into Kosovo and other areas of Yugoslavia to
wait out the conflict. It is unclear whether they will return to the
areas they fled.

There have long been fears that if Macedonia divides, it could drag
neighboring countries into conflict.

"Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece all have particular historical interests
in the region--the first two Balkan wars prior to World War I were
fought over the territory--so that any violence there risks the
possibility of escalation to a wider region," said Ivo Daalder, a
senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington.

Diplomatic sources say the ethnic Albanian rebel army in Macedonia is
far better armed and organized than its counterpart in Kosovo was two
years ago during the war there.

If a peace agreement is signed, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization
force is to be deployed in Macedonia to disarm the guerrillas.

But ethnic Macedonians believe that the guerrillas will never fully
disarm and will remain an intimidating force that will continue to
control the mountainous areas to the east and west of the capital.

Guerrillas shot two soldiers at an army checkpoint Sunday. Such
incidents in ethnic Albanian territory have become almost daily
occurrences, even after a cease-fire was restored last week.

The deaths of soldiers and police have attained a symbolic significance
among ethnic Macedonians.

On Monday in Skopje, the cavernous St. Clement's Macedonian Orthodox
Cathedral was filled to overflowing and a crowd of hundreds thronged
outside for the funeral of an army reservist. He was from the Tetovo
area, a town about an hour from the capital that is at the center of
rebel activity.

The funeral was held in Skopje because ethnic Macedonians did not feel
comfortable holding it in an area dominated by ethnic Albanians.

On the other side, ethnic Albanians say they fear intimidation by
largely untrained police and army reservists, who have recently been
put on active duty. They say the government has given arms and
ammunition to ethnic Macedonian civilians in mixed areas and encouraged
people to defend themselves.

"If there is going to be a demilitarization of the NLA, then there
should also be a demilitarization of paramilitary Macedonian groups,"
said Emin Azemi, publisher of Fakti, an Albanian-language daily
newspaper. "Otherwise, Albanians feel there will an imbalance that
could result in violence toward Albanians."

Despite the evidence of forced migration, diplomats hope it can be
contained because there has been far less brutality and violence here
than elsewhere in the Balkans. They say that so far, there have been
few atrocities and no use of such brutal tactics as systematic rape.

Still, they acknowledge that the distrust and suspicion as well as the
beginnings of forced migration are the seeds of a bigger ethnic
conflict.

"Even in the best case, the country will be more divided," said a
senior Western diplomat. "Ethnic Macedonians now, compared to a year
ago, are much more hardened against the Albanians. The signing of a
peace agreement will not be the end of the story."

---------------------------------
Akio Fujita
A.Fujita@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[interact_list] [Macedonia] Pessimism or_about realities on the ground

Other related posts: