[gameprogrammer] Re: job field security

On Fri, 2004-08-27 at 10:53, Kevin Jenkins wrote:
> I'm curious why you think it would be cyclical in this case?  Unless you 
> mean the US pay will drop to that of other countries and we get a hiring 
> boom because of that.

Good point. What will drive up the demand for US programmers? 

What happens is that a huge number of people who are currently
programmers will stop programming. Over time it will get harder and
harder to hire people to do the jobs that you just can't more out of the
country, then the demand will start to build.  But, it will never be as
high as was in the late '90s. Expect salaries closer to 30K than to 90K.

The same thing happened to mechanical engineers in the early '70s and
the late '80s early '90s. When the US stopped going to the moon a huge
number of engineers were put out on the streets. Most never got jobs as
engineers again. When the Soviet Union feel apart, again, a huge number
of engineers were laid off and many never worked as engineers again.
Now, you can get a job as an engineer. Those jobs aren't as numerous as
they were and they pay much less than they used to. But, you can get a
job.

                Bob Pendleton

> 
> > Glad you replied... It gives me the excuse to post something that I
> > forgot the first time. I stated studying computer science during the
> > engineering downturn in the early '70s. When I changed my major to CS my
> > adviser warned not to do it. He said "A CS degree and 50 cents will get
> > you a cup of coffee" (Yeah, you could get a cup of coffee for 50 cents
> > then.) By the time I finished my degree the demand for CS people was so
> > high that everyone of the people in my graduating class had as many
> > offers as we wanted. 
> > 
> > This stuff is cyclical. It is bad now, but if you are just starting out
> > there is a good chance that by the time you have the training you need
> > the market will have changed. 
> > 
> > Of course, in 5 to 10 years after that it will stink again. 
> > 
> >                     Bob Pendleton
> 
> 
> 
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