[gameprogrammer] Re: Multithreaded humor and musings

On Thu, 30 Jun 2005 13:36:18 -0500, "brianevans"
<brianevans@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> said:
> Nevertheless, there's a number of issues that make me think that
> things will pan out differently this time:
> 
> 1) Sony is struggling overall right now: "The company's quarterly net
> loss grew to about $533 million (56.5 billion yen) from about $360 
> million a year earlier"
> --http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1040_22-5686459.html

Yeah, that's a big number, but it's a relatively small number (when
sales are about $70.2b).  I haven't studied this, but Sony appears to be
at a cyclical low currently.  PS2 sales are well and truly in decline,
with a lot of cash going into gearing up for PS3.  PSP sales are just
getting started, with the European launch still some way away, and
'capacity problems' stopping them from getting too many out the door
right now.  And apparently their mainstay electronics division has
problems, but is in the middle of a restructuring program which at least
has a chance of fixing them.

It seems fairly likely that it'll be mostly up for Sony from here.  So I
wouldn't worry overly about the strength of the business.

> 2) Microsoft will be first this time, by around 6 months and a holiday 
> season.

This is a definite consideration.  But consider Sony's brand; kids out
on the street still love the PlayStation.  It'll certainly even up the
field, though.

> 3) Microsoft has a proven, managed online service in Xbox Live, and I
> have yet to see something comparible from Sony.

Interested to see if this makes much of a difference.  Consoles have
traditionally been more 'physically' multiplayer than PCs, which are
'virtually' multiplayer.  You know, your mates come round and you play
StreetFighter or Tony Hawk, whereas you play Age of Empires or
Battlefield 1942 on line with your mates.  I'm not yet convinced that
the majority of console owners have the infrastructure to play online.

> 4) Linking with "media edition."  The ability to beam movies from
> your PC to your living room tv is a killer feature.
> http://www.xbox.com/en-US/xbox360/entertainment.htm

Eventually, maybe.  But (again) the majority of people are a hundred
times more likely to have hard-copy media (the actual disc), rather than
soft-copy (the MPEG file).  Maybe broadband takeup is better in the US
than it is in Asutralia (probably), but here 99% of people wouldn't have
the bandwidth to download movies.

> 5) The xbox also appears to win on cost right now, and ease of
> development.

Not sure if ease of development is a factor.  The Xbox was always easier
than the PS2, which didn't ever appear to make a huge difference.  If
there's a significant market (hi, Gamecube) out there, you have to
develop for it, surely?

> I know I'm starting to sound like an Xbox zealot, but I honestly 
> predict Microsoft to win this round, at least in the US (Japan may 
> very well be a different story).  But all we can do is wait and see.
> There are tons of Sony loyalists out there that very well may prove 
> me wrong. :)

I'm not a Sony loyalist or particularly a Microsoft hater.  And I
wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft did win this one; mainly because of
their first-mover advantage.  But at the same time, I don't reckon it's
cut and dried, at this point.

Dave.
-- 
  Dave Slutzkin
  Melbourne, Australia
  daveslutzkin@xxxxxxxxxxx



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