[Bristol-Birds] Hurricane Ike potential for birds.

From: "Wallace Coffey" <jwcoffey@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Bristol-birds" <bristol-birds@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2008 13:11:38 -0400
this is a post made to the TN-Birds Net listserv:

About Hurricane Ike
It appears that the storm-driven bird fallout from Ike will come over the 
western edge of Arkansas 
the southeastern part of Missouri.  But the outflow winds will be extensive.  
At this point, 
Hurricane Ike is 700+ miles wide.

Storm-driven birds could easily be dropped into the western and maybe central 
areas of Tennessee.  
You could probably say the same for Kentucky.  I bet Reelfoot Lake and Kentucky 
Lake will be good
staging points to watch for  fallouts.  Sunday is the best possible time as we 
see it now.  East 
Tennessee may have a slim chance Monday as the remnants are forced down under 
the jet stream. 
.
Pelagic bird fallout can be dramatic because of the long period of time birds 
have been aloft over open 
seas. The downgrade to a tropical storm will be their first and best chance to 
recover their own flight
control and return to sea.  Many downed birds will alight for a short period to 
rest and then leave.
Others will fly about small lakes and larger rivers before departure.

The bird fallout should 
approach its best potential 
at the point where the 
storm down grades from
a hurricane to a tropical 
storm..  We can read the
 optimal conditions.  As 
the pressure goes to 
980 mb and upwards 
with the winds dropping 
to 39 mph or less, 
conditions quickly optimize 
for bird fallout.

With the jet stream flowing 
west to east just north of us, 
rain will fall over much of 
Tennessee.  Coupled
with birds turning back from 
the tropical storm downgrade 
and the slower winds, rarities 
of all kinds may be found 
almost anywhere there is 
water over much of the path.

Keep your eyes open.  Run out to your favorite 
waterbird birding area just as soon as the weather
permits you do to so safely.  But you must watch
and wait for the storm to downgrade to a tropical
storm with a central pressure of 980 mb and 
upwards with wind speeds dropping to 39 mph. 

Do not make your determination on when conditions 
are like that near where you live.  Make those
determination on the path of Hurricane Ike thru 
Arkansas, Missouri or West Tennessee.  When it
hits those parameters -- BINGO.  You might want 
to guess where that will be so you can move within
a hundred miles of that point and then race in behind 
the storm to get the birds.

Conditions can be horrible in a tropical storm state with power lines down, 
trees in the road, flying
objects, flooding and all kinds of life-threatening conditions.

Do not take any chances whatsoever.  Be more than extremely cautious.  This is 
not something for
thrill seekers to race into.  People like that easily get killed.  This is 
something for cautious birders
to do with great planning, great study and great caution.  Be extremely 
careful.  You are on  your own.
This is not a project of the Bristol Bird Club nor a sponsored activity of the 
Bristol Bird List list.  You
are on your own with danger, injury, death and liability in every possible way. 
 No one has any
responsibility for what you do except you. Please exercise the greatest 
possible caution and be safe
at all cost.

Wallace Coffey
Bristol, TN
Wallace
[Bristol-Birds] Hurricane Ike potential for birds.

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