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These 15 Election Takeaways Reveal the Electorate That Gave the U.S.
President-Elect Trump
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Posted on Dec 8, 2016
By Steven Rosenfeld / AlterNet
(http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/these-15-startling-election-takeaways
-reveal-surprising-electorate-resulted-president)
Fraser Mummery (https://www.flickr.com/photos/73014677@N05/) / (CC-BY-2.0)
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)
The American electorate in 2016 has some strange and surprising features,
according to a new survey
(http://www.prri.org/research/prri-atlantic-december-2016-post-election-surv
ey/) released Dec. 1 by PRRI/The Atlantic. The survey, an exploration of
why people did or didn't vote, found most voters apathetic early on, with
two-thirds not participating in the primaries, but then becoming engaged in
a passionate fight over what many working-class whites saw as their last
chance to preserve a country where they could prosper. Conversely, many
women and communities of color felt deeply threatened by Donald Trump and
were left feeling discouraged and fearful after the election.
What follows are 15 takeaways from the research, starting with the stark
reality that a small percentage of Americans in both parties nominated the
presidential candidates-who were disliked by a majority of the country.
1. A minority of Americans gave us November's candidates. Voter turnout in
the primaries was 37 percent, or about half of the presidential election's
63 percent turnout. This was as true for Democrats as for Republicans, PRRI
found: "There were no significant voting pattern differences between
supporters of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump." Fewer people drive the
nominations and then tens of millions of less-engaged voters begrudgingly
weigh in.
2. Making voting harder does depress turnout. States with all voting by mail
set records
(http://koin.com/2016/10/11/wash-breaks-record-with-over-4-2-million-voters/
) this fall. On the other hand, nearly a quarter of non-voters (23 percent)
said getting to a polling place took too much time. One in five (21 percent)
said they were not registered, so they could not make last-minute decisions.
One in ten, or 11 percent, said why bother, the election is "rigged." The
most common reason for not voting, among 36 percent who didn't bother, was
dislike of the candidates.
3. Trump's voters were more loyal than Clinton's. More Trump supporters who
early on said they would vote for him ended up doing so, compared to
Clinton. "Only about three-quarters (76%) of registered voters who reported
that they were supporting or leaning towards Clinton in late September and
early October reported actually casting a ballot for her," PRRI found. "In
contrast, 84% of those who reported they were supporting Trump ahead of the
election said they voted for him."
4. Many couples were split, with women backing Hillary and men not. The
pollsters were able to quantify the political differences along gender
lines, finding about two-thirds of Clinton voters said their spouses voted
like them. But among those who did not, 10 percent said their spouse voted
for Trump or someone else, and another 19 percent of the women supporting
Clinton said their husbands didn't cast a vote for president.
5. Trump households were more united than Clinton households. Compared to
homes where women were behind Clinton while their partners had doubts,
pro-Trump households were more unified. "Nearly three-quarters (73%) of male
Trump supporters said their wife or partner was also supporting the GOP
nominee, and few said their spouses or partners voted for Clinton (4%) or
another candidate (3%). Thirteen percent of male Trump supporters reported
that their wife or partner did not vote."
6. Voters more scared of Democrats than Republicans. More said Democratic
policies were "a threat to the country" than Republican policies were. "A
majority (56%) of Republicans and 61% of Trump voters say that the policies
of the Democratic Party constitute a dangerous threat to the country," PRRI
said. "About four in ten (38%) Republicans believe that Democratic policies
are misguided but not dangerous. Conversely, a slim majority (51%) of
Democrats and half (50%) of Clinton supporters believe that the GOP's
platform represents a threat the country."
7. Election left more negative feelings than positive ones. After election
day, half the nation was worried (26 percent), disappointed (19 percent) and
angry (5 percent), compared to those feeling satisfied (23 percent) or
excited (19 percent) by the election's results. Intriguingly, a lot of
Democrats and Republicans don't like their parties. "One-quarter (26%) of
Republicans and three in 10 (30%) Democrats say the policies of their own
party are misguided," PRRI said.
8. Working-class whites most excited with results. This isn't a new
analysis, but PRRI found an intriguing twist. The most pleased people in
2016 were the ones most disappointed with Mitt Romney's loss to President
Obama in 2012. "A majority of white working-class Americans say they feel
satisfied (26%) or excited (26%) about Trump's electoral victory. In
contrast, fewer than four in 10 white college-educated Americans say they
feel satisfied (20%) or excited (17%). In 2012, only about one in three
white working-class Americans reported feeling either excited (12%) or
satisfied (23%) about Obama's reelection. More than six in 10 said they were
disappointed (29%), worried (29%), or angry (4%)."
9. Not surprisedly, communities of color are disappointed. "Majorities of
black and Hispanic Americans report generally negative feelings about the
election outcome, expressing feelings of disappointment (33% and 33%,
respectively), worry (19% and 25%, respectively) or anger (15% and 7%,
respectively)."
10. Women feel much worse than men.This is also not surprising: "A slim
majority of men report feeling satisfied (28%) or excited (23%) about the
prospect of a Trump presidency, while only about one-third of women share
these feelings-18% are satisfied and 15% are excited," PRRI found. "Roughly
one-third (32%) of women say they are worried, 21% say they are
disappointed, and eight percent are angry about the election outcome.
Negative feelings among non-white women are even more pronounced; 35% of
non-white women say they are disappointed, 26% say they are worried, and 12%
say they are angry."
11. White evangelical Protestants very excited. Among religious groups, only
this cohort of evangelicals were really pleased with this election.
"Two-thirds of white evangelical Protestants report being excited (31%) or
satisfied (36%) with the election result," PRRI said. "Despite winning a
majority of white Catholic and white mainline Protestant votes, fewer than
half of each group feel positively about Trump's win. Fewer than half of
white Catholics report feeling excited (27%) or satisfied (20%) by Trump's
victory."
12. Republicans saw last chance to save America. This apocalyptic view was
held by a majority of Trump voters. "Six in 10 (60%) Republicans and 66% of
Trump voters believe the election represented the last opportunity to arrest
America's decline, while only 29% of Democrats and 22% of Clinton voters
embrace this view," the pollsters said. "More than two-thirds (68%) of
Democrats and 76% of Clinton voters reject this idea. The views of political
independents closely resemble those of the public overall."
13. Working-class whites split on doomsday scenario. Not everybody who
lacked a college degree thought America was facing a do-or-die moment, but
many did. "Nearly half (49%) of white working-class Americans believe the
election was the last chance to stop America's decline, while about as many
(50%) disagree," PRRI said. "Fewer than three in 10 (27%) white
college-educated Americans believe the election was the last chance to stop
America's decline."
14. Media bias was biggest problem seen by voters.That was seen as the
biggest problem (33 percent) with the election, followed by the influence of
wealthy Americans and corporations (24 percent), low-voter participation (16
percent), voter suppression (7 percent) and voter fraud concerns (6
percent). Republicans said media bias was the biggest problem, while
Democrats said the biggest problem was the undue influence of big money.
15. America is still a very racist country. Half the public felt Trump's
anti-immigrant remarks helped him. "Nearly half (48%) of the public says
Trump's position on immigration and immigrants helped him during the 2016
election, while only 13% said it hurt him. Roughly one-third (32%) say it
did not make a difference either way," PRRI said. Those findings show how
entrenched racist views are, whether they are openly expressed or not.
A deeply divided country digs in
The nation is as divided as ever on partisan lines, the PRRI/Atlantic survey
affirms. Not surprisingly, Democrats do not expect the future to be much
better, while Republicans believe the opposite, buying into Trump's hype. "A
slim majority (51%) of Republicans say that the quality of life in their
community will get better while only 16% of Democrats share this view.
However, only 27% of Democrats say the quality of life in their local
community is likely to decline while most (55%) say it will probably remain
about the same."
What's especially striking about that last finding is that many Democrats do
not believe that the incoming Trump administration will be able to impact
the legal and political forces that shape their lives. That is remarkable,
when Trump is appointing the most right-wing administration in decades and
is poised to lock up the U.S. Supreme Court for social conservatives and
pro-corporate forces for decades.
Steven Rosenfeld covers national political issues for AlterNet, including
America's democracy and voting rights, campaigns and elections, and many
social justice issues. He is the author of "Count My Vote: A Citizen's Guide
to Voting" (AlterNet Books, 2008).
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