[AZ-Observing] Winter forecasts for the weather-obsessed

     The latest set of climate model-runs for the upcoming year have been
published today by NOAA.  The temperature and precip maps are here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlo
oks/color/churchill.html

(long one-line URL)

...and the text discussion here:          

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

These indicate it is now more certain that the Southwest is likely to have a
relatively wet winter in Feb-Apr, mainly as a result of elevated Pacific
sea-surface temperatures (aka El Nino), which are running between 2 and 3
degrees C above average, indicating a moderate El Nino cycle.
     Despite using temperature averages from 1981-2000, there's
hardly such a thing as below normal temperatures in these forecasts.

\Brian
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