[AZ-Observing] Re: The Monsoon may already be here

On Sun, 13 Jul 2003 05:01:23 -0700, Paul Dickson wrote:

> [...] IF PHX DEWPOINT AVERAGES 55 OR HIGHER TODAY...THE MONSOON 
> WILL OFFICIALLY BE UNDERWAY AS OF FRIDAY.   ESTLE


Phoenix did not make it.  We'll have to wait until Thrusday or Friday, to
see if it started on Tuesday or Wednesday.

        -Paul


FXUS65 KPSR 141052 CCA
AFDPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-141745-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA
351 AM MST MON JUL 14 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER 
DAY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT 
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY...FOR AN INCREASE IN 
MOISTURE...AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST...WILL SPREAD WEST 
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY LATE WEEK. 

.DISCUSSION...
THE AVERAGE 24HR DEW POINT FOR SUNDAY WAS 53 DEG...SO WE STILL HAVE 
NOT MADE THREE DAYS IN A ROW OF 55 DEG OR HIGHER FOR THE OFFICIAL 
START OF THE MONSOON. UNFORTUNATELY THE BAD NEWS JUST GETS WORSE 
TODAY...YET GOOD NEWS IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMP DAY...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. 00Z SOUNDING AT PSR 
INDICATED A COUPLE OF DEG OF WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. FURTHERMORE 
...24H CHANGE PRODUCT INDICATES DEW POINTS ARE DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEG 
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. THUS...BARING ANOTHER UNEXPECTED SURGE EVENT 
(AS SEEN LAST THU)...WE SHOULD SEE 116 (OUCH) AT SKY HARBOR THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND THE HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED SUN FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN 
IN EFFECT FOR MARICOPA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH 
THE CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST IN THE FAR EAST VALLEY AGAIN 
TONIGHT...DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE 
FOUR CORNERS TUE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
THE EAST...AS WELL AS INITIATING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND 
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA (WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING 
TREND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA). AS 
THE MOISTURE LEVEL INCREASES...THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
MIDWEEK...AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY THE 
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER A FEW DEG EACH 
DAY THROUGH THU...THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WINDS 
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...EXPECT GUSTY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...A 
PERSISTENT FORECAST BEGINNING THU AND LASTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED 
LOOKS GOOD.

SOMETHING EXCITING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE NEAR FUTURE IS TROPICAL 
STORM CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEX. MODELS ARE 
INDICATING THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE 
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL 
MOISTURE BEGINNING FRI AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
THEREFORE...WITH AN INCREASE IN 700MB MOISTURE PROGED TO BEGIN 
TUE...AND THE MODELS POINTING TOWARD AN EVEN GREATER INCREASE IN 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE OFFICIAL START 
OF THE MONSOON MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF...AND COULD BE AS EARLY AS 
TUE/WED. OF COURSE...WE WILL NOT KNOW FOR CERTAIN UNTIL THU/FRI 
(GOTTA GET THOSE THREE DAYS IN A ROW OF A DAILY DEW POINT AVERAGE OF 
55 DEG). THINGS COULD GET RATHER EXCITING TOWARD THE END OF THE 
WEEK. STAY TUNED!  LW

.PSR...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT ZONES 22...23
       27...AND 28...MARICOPA COUNTY INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
       AREA...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY TODAY.

$$
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