FreeLists / bristol-birds / [Bristol-Birds] Weather outlook weekend BBC Xmas Counts

["Wallace Coffey" <jwcoffey@xxxxxxxxxx>]

The Glade Springs VA Christmas Bird Count begins tonight (Fri.) at midnight 
with most count parties going afield at dawn Saturday to find pleasant weather 
and good birding conditions.  However, birders should be cautious of possible 
pre-dawn fog and early daylight fog in the count area.

 Point Forecast: 1 Miles SW Chilhowie VA
 36.81N -81.7W (Elev. 2099 ft)

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 53. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. 

A rapidly moving weather front is passing through our area at 6:00 p.m. Friday. 
 It will continue to move northeast at 45 mph across Northeast Tennessee and 
Southwest Virginia.  Behind it comes a high pressure which will likely produce 
active birding. It will provide improving conditions.

The Bristol Christmas Bird Count should be productive with large numbers of 
birders and many talented and proven birders in all parties.   Waterfowl and 
other related water birds are in the area in good numbers with the possibility 
of valuable diversity.  The passing front clearing Saturday may shift the 
population of ducks by Sunday's count but the dependable gull, buffleheads, 
ring-necks and mergansers should hold.  Quick snapshots of key wintering areas 
in the count circle suggests they are in good numbers and concentrations facing 
into count day.  

Point Forecast: 3 Miles E Bristol VA
 36.62N -82.11W (Elev. 1850 ft)

Sunday: Rain likely, mainly after 1 p.m.. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. 
Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WARM FRONT HAS REMAINED
SOUTH OF AREA TODAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL SWRLY JET ABOVE 3000 FEET
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION BELOW STRONG 
WINDS HAS HINDERED WARMING TODAY AND HAS RESULTED IN FOG  FORMATION. 
THIS SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST TIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND 
POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. AIRMASS HAS WESTERN SOURCE REGION AND IS NOT
VERY COLD. SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.   STRENGTHENING SW-NE JET ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE PROVIDES GOOD LIFT AND DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH INTO BRISTOL
BIRD COUNT AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT  THROUGH MID DAY SUN WHEN JET AXIS SHIFTS 
EAST OF AREA.

Let's go birding.....

Wallace Coffey
Bristol, TN