FreeLists / az-observing / [AZ-Observing] Re: The Weather.....

[Wil Milan <wmilan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The latest forecasts and maps show increasing cloudiness pretty much 
everywhere in the state, particularly the central and southern portions 
(e.g., Vekol). Even the portions that were last forecast clear (the Tucson 
area) are now showing increasing cloudiness. The sole remaining exception 
is Kingman, which as of this writing still forecasts clear for tonight, but 
that's from the 3:30am forecast and I suspect that when the Kingman 
forecast is updated this morning it may well show cloudy tonight. The water 
vapor maps show increasing moisture already moving into central Arizona 
with more on the way, and Kingman does not appear to be exempt.

The digital forecast model from the NWS Tucson office shows mostly overcast 
by Sunday morning (increasing from 26% cloudy at midnight to 91% cloudy at 
6am). Closer to Phoenix in the Ajo to Picacho region it's worse, with sky 
mostly overcast by midnight and solid overcast by 6am. Unfortunately the 
Tucson digital model doesn't extend as far north as Phoenix, but if you 
want to play with the interactive digital forecast for the southern and 
southeastern portion of the state see:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Tucson/gfe/gfe_main.shtml

There's a dry line moving into California that *may* reach eastern 
California/western Arizona late tonight, and if so that might mean that 
heading west -- way out west, at least to the CA border and maybe as far as 
Joshua Tree -- might be the best option for clear skies in time for the 
Leonids peak. The hope would be to get behind this band of moisture and 
into the drier air that is pushing behind it. That drier air is not likely 
to reach central Arizona until much too late for the Leonids (well into 
Sunday sometime), but by driving west one might be able to intersect it 
soon enough to see the shower. The Kingman or Needles area may be even 
better, as the dry air seems like it will move into Arizona from northwest 
to southeast, reaching the Kingman area first.

My present plan is to leave at 4pm or so, head west or northwest, and keep 
driving until the clouds thin out. I hope that's not much farther than the 
CA border, but no telling with this stuff. :-)

Wil Milan
http://www.astrophotographer.com/
"The heavens declare the glory of God
And the firmament proclaims His handiwork."
   -- Psalm 19:1


At 09:48 AM 11/17/2001, you wrote:

>hmmm, from the following "viewing conditions" map at intellicast.com, it
>does appear that tuscon looks "best", and vekol/kofa are only "good".  i
>dont' know how these maps are derived but i've found them to be a fairly
>good assessment of viewing conditions, on average:
>
>http://www.intellicast.com/Star/World/UnitedStates/SkyWatch/d1_00/
>
>-b
>
>--On Saturday, November 17, 2001 8:40 AM -0700 Thad Robosson
><starstarcracker@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > Hey All,
> >
> > I imagine that this discussion would take place without my asking, but
> > what's everyone's take on the current satellite photos?  Looks like
> > there's some junk headed our way....
> >
> > Thad



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