FreeLists / az-observing / [AZ-Observing] Wet El Ni\~no winter ?

[Brian Skiff <bas@xxxxxxxxxx>]

     There was a news item last week about the increase in sea-surface 
temps in the western Pacific.  This implied a possible El Nino event
ramping up.  The long-lead climate models issued monthly (today)
by the NWS (which are run out 15 months ahead of the current date)
have bought into this at least partly.  This changes the forecast
for the winter precip from "even odds" to the wet side.
The page with the maps is here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.html

...and the discussion about the various factors that go into the suite
of models is here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

They make it sound as though they'll need data for another month or 
six weeks on the sea temperatures before being able to decide how 
strong the El Nino event is likely to be.  Those season passes at
Snow Bowl might not have been a waste of money after all.


\Brian
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