FreeLists / az-observing / [AZ-Observing] Re: Arizona weather question

[Brian Skiff <bas@xxxxxxxxxx>]

     Two weeks experience means you've seen only a single pattern of
weather even within the monsoon cycle.  This has been a relatively dry
monsoon pattern the last two weeks, so it is merely one sort of the
phenomenon.
     The Tucson weather service office has a very nice Web page and monsoon
tutorial:  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Tucson/
     If you are really interested in following the weather, you can learn
a lot about the atmospheric sources of weather and also how it is forecast
by regularly reading the "forecast discussions" that come from the weather
service offices.  At the Tucson site, these can be found under the
"Forecasts" link from their front page.  The discussions contain some
technical lingo, but also deal in two things you never see in the generic
public forecast:  hindsight and the uncertainty in the forecasts.  These
basically outline _why_ they are giving the forecast they are giving,
even to the extent of admitting "we don't know what's going to happen, so
we'll just forecast whatever happened today will happen tomorrow".  These
discussions come out four times per day at about 3am/pm and 9am/pm; the
3am/pm ones are the main ones, and other pair are usually to make small
updates in the public forecasts.

\Brian
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